Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Growth concerns: On economic forecasts amid Omicron surge

Growth concerns: On economic forecasts amid Omicron surge

NSO forecast (पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी, पूर्वाभास) has not factored in (में कारक, ध्यान में रखना) the impact of the ongoing Omicron-induced surge (sudden increase or rise of something) in cases

The National Statistical Office’s (राष्ट्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय) first advance (preliminary, early, beforehand) estimates for economic output in the current financial year is an optimistic (आशावादी, आश्वस्त, अनुकूल) forecast that flags (झंडा, इंगित करना, पहचानना) some positive trends as well as (के साथ-साथ) areas of concern (it refers to environmentally sensitive or damaged areas (i.e. fields of activity)) that have the potential (संभावना, क्षमता) to derail (पटरी से उतरना, बाधा डालना) the growth (विकास, प्रगति, उन्नति) momentum (गति, शक्ति, उत्साह). The NSO has projected (परियोजना, पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी) real GDP for the 12 months ending March 2022 at ₹147.54 lakh-crore, a 9.2% expansion (विस्तार, बढ़ोतरी) from the provisional estimate of ₹135.13 lakh-crore for the last fiscal year (financial year), when the full fury (severity) of the COVID-19 pandemic (the worldwide spread of a new disease; The illness spreads around the world and typically affects a large number of people across a wide area) had caused output to contract (decline, decrease, diminish, reduce) by 7.3%. At that pace, India’s economy would regain its pre-eminence (superiority, supremacy, greatness) as the world’s fastest growing major economy. A key pillar of this growth assumption (supposition, presupposition, presumption, premise, belief, expectation, speculation) is the upbeat outlook (prospects, expectations, hopes, likely improvement, lookout, future) for net tax receipts (proceeds, money/payment received, income, revenue, earnings, turnover) on products, which the NSO sees expanding by a robust 16.2%, after shrinking (contract, lessen, reduce, decrease) by 18.4% in the preceding (previous, prior, earlier) period. Gross Value Added (it is a measure of total output and income in the economy. It provides the rupee value for the amount of goods and services produced in an economy after deducting the cost of inputs and raw materials that have gone into the production of those goods and services. It also gives a sector-specific picture like what is the growth in an area, industry, or sector of an economy. On the other hand, GDP or gross domestic product is a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and services), which aggregates (combine, put, unite, pool, mix, merge, consolidate) output in the various sectors of the economy, is projected to grow by 8.6% year-on-year (year over year (for comparison)) on the back of (as a result of, after, subsequent to) a continued healthy showing by the farm sector and a heartening (encouraging, promising, hopeful, reassuring) double digit (12.5%) rebound (recovery, rallying, picking up (from decline)) in manufacturing. However, when compared with the pre-pandemic FY2020’s GVA, the projected output of ₹135.2 lakh-crore is barely ₹2.5 lakh-crore, or 1.9%, higher, clearly pointing to (indicate, suggest, denote) the fact that the economy has a fair distance to travel before it can regain the growth momentum (विकास की गति) that is crucially required to create more jobs and help narrow (reduce, curtail, cut down, lessen, lower, decrease) the widening (increasing) income inequality (Inequality is simply defined as “the state of not being equal, especially in status, rights and opportunities; imbalance, unevenness, disproportion, disparity).

Tellingly, the NSO’s forecast, which relies on varied data spanning (extend over, stretch across, spread over, range over) the first six to eight months of the current fiscal, has not factored in the impact of the ongoing Omicron-induced (caused/produced by the Omicron) surge in COVID-19 cases. After all (most importantly, above all, most of all, ultimately, first and foremost, essentially, basically), it is anyone’s guess (very difficult to predict) as to how much of a blow (shock, surprise; setback/misfortune) the current wave may deal to already fragile (easily broken/destroyed, weak, risky, unreliable, insecure) supply chains (a dynamic network when a company purchases or uses goods or services from others. It involves people, information, processes, and resources involved in the production, handling, and distribution of materials and finished products or providing a service to the customer), consumption demand (the demand for goods and services by individuals and households in the economy) and contact-intensive services. In fact, private final consumption expenditure, which two years ago accounted for close to 60% of GDP, is still struggling to recover from the crushing compression (reduction, contraction) it suffered in the first full year of the pandemic, when it shrank 9.1%. While the NSO posits (put forward, set forth, present, propose) consumer spending (the acquisition (buying/procuring) of goods and services by individuals or families) to grow by 6.9% this fiscal, the assumed figure is still a sizeable 2.9% shy of (less than; short of) the FY2020 level. Equally significantly (notably, importantly, crucially), the omnibus (the Latin word literally meaning “for all”; consisting of several parts/items) services category that spans trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting and makes up (comprise, form, compose, constitute, account for) a fifth of the GVA is estimated to post a mere 11.9% expansion after shrinking by 18.2% last fiscal. As a result, even without factoring in the impact of a third wave, this vital services sector would still be lagging behind its pre-pandemic output by 8.5%. With the Union Budget barely a few weeks away, policymakers have a clear choice to make: introduce consumption and investment supportive measures (action, step, procedure), even if it means loosening the fiscal purse strings, or risk seeing the growth momentum faltering (loose momentum, loose strength, oscillate, fluctuate, change one’s mind, be undecided, be irresolute) for want of (due to a lack of (something)) a fair wind (a favourable situation/condition/trend).

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.forecast (noun)

Hindi Meaning - पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी, पूर्वाभास
English Meaning - prediction, prophecy, forewarning, prognostication, augury, divination, prognosis, projection, calculation.

2.amid (preposition)

Hindi Meaning - के बीच, मध्य में
English Meaning - in the middle of, surrounded by; during.

3.factor in (phrasal verb)

Hindi Meaning - में कारक, ध्यान में रखना
English Meaning - take into consideration, include.

4.National Statistical Office (NSO) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - राष्ट्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय
English Meaning - The Ministry of Statistics and the Department of Programme Implementation has two wings, one relating to Statistics and the other Programme Implementation. The Statistics Wing called the National Statistical Office (NSO) gives considerable importance to coverage and quality aspects of statistics released in the country. The statistics released are based on administrative sources, surveys and censuses conducted by the Center and State Governments and non-official sources and studies.

5.optimistic (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - आशावादी, आश्वस्त, अनुकूल
English Meaning - reassuring, favourable, encouraging, promising, hopeful.

6.flag (verb)

Hindi Meaning - झंडा, इंगित करना, पहचानना
English Meaning - indicate, identify, point out.

7.as well as (phrase)

Hindi Meaning - के साथ-साथ
English Meaning - and in addition; and also.

8.potential (noun)

Hindi Meaning - संभावना, क्षमता
English Meaning - possibilities, potentiality, prospects.

9.derail (verb)

Hindi Meaning - पटरी से उतरना, बाधा डालना
English Meaning - obstruct, impede, hinder, hamper, block, interrupt, thwart, stop, restrict.

10.growth (noun)

Hindi Meaning - विकास, प्रगति, उन्नति
English Meaning - development, progress, advancement, headway, improvement.

11.momentum (noun)

Hindi Meaning - गति, शक्ति, उत्साह
English Meaning - strength, impetus.

12.growth momentum (noun)

Hindi Meaning - विकास की गति
English Meaning - rate of acceleration of an economic, price, or volume movement.

13.project (verb)

Hindi Meaning - परियोजना, पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी
English Meaning - forecast, predict, estimate, calculate.

14.Gross domestic product (GDP) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - सकल घरेलू उत्पाद
English Meaning - a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and services.

15.expansion (noun)

Hindi Meaning - विस्तार, बढ़ोतरी
English Meaning - increase.

16.Omicron variant (noun)

English Meaning - On 26 November 2021, WHO designated the (new coronavirus) variant B.1.1.529 a variant of concern, named Omicron, on the advice of WHO’s Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution (TAG-VE). The first known confirmed Omicron infection was from a specimen collected on November 9. In recent weeks, infections in South Africa have increased steeply, coinciding with the detection.

17.surge (noun)

English Meaning - sudden increase or rise of something.

18.Omicron-induced (adjective)

English Meaning - caused/produced by the Omicron.

19.advance (noun)

English Meaning - preliminary, early, beforehand.

20.areas of concern (phrase)

English Meaning - it refers to environmentally sensitive or damaged areas (i.e. fields of activity).

21.provisional (adjective)

English Meaning - temporary, short-term, interim, transitional.

22.fiscal year (noun)

English Meaning - financial year.

23.fury (noun)

English Meaning - severity.

24.pandemic (noun)

English Meaning - the worldwide spread of a new disease; The illness spreads around the world and typically affects a large number of people across a wide area.

25.contract (verb)

English Meaning - decline, decrease, diminish, reduce.

26.pre-eminence (noun)

English Meaning - superiority, supremacy, greatness.

27.pillar (noun)

English Meaning - mainstay, strength, tower of strength, backbone, support.

28.assumption (noun)

English Meaning - supposition, presupposition, presumption, premise, belief, expectation, speculation.

29.upbeat (adjective)

English Meaning - optimistic, positive, hopeful.

30.outlook (noun)

English Meaning - prospects, expectations, hopes, likely improvement, lookout, future.

31.receipts (noun)

English Meaning - proceeds, money/payment received, income, revenue, earnings, turnover.

32.robust (adjective)

English Meaning - strong, powerful.

33.shrink (verb)

English Meaning - contract, lessen, reduce, decrease.

34.preceding (adjective)

English Meaning - previous, prior, earlier.

35.gross value added (GVA) (noun)

English Meaning - it is a measure of total output and income in the economy. It provides the rupee value for the amount of goods and services produced in an economy after deducting the cost of inputs and raw materials that have gone into the production of those goods and services. It also gives a sector-specific picture like what is the growth in an area, industry, or sector of an economy. On the other hand, GDP or gross domestic product is a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and services.

36.aggregate (verb)

English Meaning - combine, put, unite, pool, mix, merge, consolidate.

37.year-on-year (adjective)

English Meaning - year over year (for comparison).

38.on the back of (phrase)

English Meaning - as a result of, after, subsequent to.

39.showing (noun)

English Meaning - performance, track record, results, success, achievement.

40.heartening (adjective)

English Meaning - encouraging, promising, hopeful, reassuring.

41.rebound (noun)

English Meaning - recovery, rallying, picking up (from decline).

42.pre-pandemic (noun)

English Meaning - before the pandemic.

43.point to (verb)

English Meaning - indicate, suggest, denote.

44.narrow (verb)

English Meaning - reduce, curtail, cut down, lessen, lower, decrease.

45.widening (adjective)

English Meaning - increasing.

46.inequality (noun)

English Meaning - Inequality is simply defined as “the state of not being equal, especially in status, rights and opportunities; imbalance, unevenness, disproportion, disparity.

47.tellingly (adverb)

English Meaning - significantly.

48.rely on (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - depend on; resort to, have recourse to.

49.span (verb)

English Meaning - extend over, stretch across, spread over, range over.

50.after all (phrase)

English Meaning - most importantly, above all, most of all, ultimately, first and foremost, essentially, basically.

51.anyone’s guess (phrase)

English Meaning - very difficult to predict.

52.blow (noun)

English Meaning - shock, surprise; setback/misfortune.

53.fragile (adjective)

English Meaning - easily broken/destroyed, weak, risky, unreliable, insecure.

54.supply chain (noun)

English Meaning - a dynamic network when a company purchases or uses goods or services from others. It involves people, information, processes, and resources involved in the production, handling, and distribution of materials and finished products or providing a service to the customer.

55.consumption demand (noun)

English Meaning - the demand for goods and services by individuals and households in the economy.

56.contact-intensive (adjective)

English Meaning - relating to the industries/sectors that have an average physical proximity index over 60. E.g. hospitality, travel, beauty and wellness, aviation etc. (Physical proximity index quantifies/measures the extent to which different occupations require physical proximity for work to be carried out).

57.non-contact intensive (adjective)

English Meaning - relating to the industries/sectors that have an average physical proximity index below 60. E.g. financial, real estate and professional services etc. (Physical proximity index quantifies/measures the extent to which different occupations require physical proximity for work to be carried out).

58.-intensive (adjective/usually in combination)

English Meaning - (in business) concentrating on a particular thing.

59.private consumption or consumption expenditure (noun)

English Meaning - the spending by households (consumers) on goods and services, excluding new housing.

60.account for (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - constitute, comprise, form, represent.

61.crushing (adjective)

English Meaning - embarrassing, humiliating, disconcerting, disappointing.

62.compression (noun)

English Meaning - reduction, contraction.

63.posit (verb)

English Meaning - put forward, set forth, present, propose.

64.consumer spending (noun)

English Meaning - the acquisition (buying/procuring) of goods and services by individuals or families.

65.sizeable (adjective)

English Meaning - substantial, considerable, significant.

66.shy of (adjective)

English Meaning - less than; short of.

67.significantly (adverb)

English Meaning - notably, importantly, crucially.

68.omnibus (noun/adjective)

English Meaning - the Latin word literally meaning “for all”; consisting of several parts/items.

69.make up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - comprise, form, compose, constitute, account for.

70.mere (adjective)

English Meaning - just, only, minimal.

71.lag behind (verb)

English Meaning - trail, straggle, fall behind, move slowly.

72.supportive (adjective)

English Meaning - reassuring, concerned, helpful.

73.measure (noun)

English Meaning - action, step, procedure.

74.loosen the purse strings (phrase)

English Meaning - to have no control of or no restriction on spending of money (by a family, company, country, etc.).

75.tighten the purse strings (phrase)

English Meaning - to have control of or restriction on spending of money (by a family, company, country, etc.).

76.falter (verb)

English Meaning - loose momentum, loose strength, oscillate, fluctuate, change one’s mind, be undecided, be irresolute.

77.for want of (phrase)

English Meaning - due to a lack of (something).

78.fair wind (noun)

English Meaning - a favourable situation/condition/trend.