Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Spectre of stagflation: On the overall macroeconomic outlook

Spectre of stagflation: On the overall macroeconomic outlook

Higher credit costs may further dampen consumption

The latest global financial developments (विकास, परिस्थिति) and recent economic data in India are together raising fears that several major economies worldwide, including India’s, may be headed for a spell (signal, point to, bring about, bring on, result in, lead to, cause) of debilitating (दुर्बल करना) stagflation (मुद्रास्फीतिजनित मंदी). Last week’s retail inflation (मुद्रा स्फ़ीति) reading (figure, indication, measurement, record) for February from India’s NSO, at 6.44%, clearly belies (झुठलाना) the RBI’s most recent forecast (पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी) for Q4 inflation of 5.7%. With January having logged (register, record; achieve) CPI-based price gains (a general increase in the price of something) of 6.52%, prices will have to soften (नरम होना, कम करना) so sharply in March as to drag the headline number down by more than 230 basis points (बुनियादी निर्देश) to about 4.1% for the RBI’s projection to come true (be fulfilled, be realized, become a reality, happen, occur, take place). A look at the components driving (prompt, push, press, force, exert) inflation shows that core inflation (it is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, excluding commodities such as food and energy prices (which change frequently)), which strips out the impact of food and fuel prices, still remains stuck at 6.2% for a third straight month, and continues to hover (मंडराना) almost at or above the 6% level since May 2021. That core inflation remains persistently (लगातार) elevated (increased, raised) despite the RBI having raised its benchmark interest rate (a minimal/minimum interest rate set and published by commercial banks for accumulating interest on different credit types) by 250 basis points since last May reveals (indicate, show, point to, suggest, signal, signify, denote) the difficulty monetary authorities (मौद्रिक प्राधिकरण) are facing in tamping down on price gains by increasing credit costs so as to dampen (lessen, moderate, abate, diminish, reduce) demand. Governor Shaktikanta Das and the RBI’s two other members on the Monetary Policy Committee (मौद्रिक नीति समिति) all cited (mention, point to, refer to) the worrying persistence (continuance, continuity, dependability, changelessness) of core inflation at their last policy meeting in February as justification (grounds, reason, rationale, basis, explanation, excuse, vindication) for deciding to continue tightening (an act of making something stricter/rigorous) monetary policy (monetary policy refers to the use of monetary instruments under the control of the central bank to regulate magnitudes such as interest rates, money supply, and availability of credit with a view to achieving the ultimate objective of economic policy mentioned in the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934).

Queering the pitch further is price gains across the food basket (a group of something (taxes, investments, commodities, food items and etc.)) too showing disconcerting (discomfiting, unsettling, disturbing, troubling) trends despite a marginal (slight, small, minimal, insignificant, negligible) deceleration of five basis points last month in the composite (combined/complex) food price index. Prices of four key categories in the food basket that together account for (constitute, make up, comprise, form, compose, represent) more than a fifth of the Consumer Price Index (an (economic) data figure reflecting something (e.g. price/quantity) compared with a standard or base value; pointer, indicator) continued to register significantly (considerably, substantially, appreciably) high year-on-year (year over year (for comparison)) inflation, as well as sequential (happened in sequence/order/succession) hardening ((of price of something) rise, increase (and be firm at a higher level)). If the key staple of cereals (a grain or plants that produce it (for example-wheat, maize, rice & etc.)) and products saw inflation accelerate to 16.7% in February, the headline reading for milk and products quickened to 9.65%, that for fruits surged (accelerate, step up, increase, quicken, rise) to 6.38% (from January’s 2.93%), with only the reading for spices slowing a tad to 20.2% (from 21.1%). With the prediction of a likely (possible, potential, probable) El Niño this year, the outlook (expectations, prospects, expectancy, future, lookout) for food prices is hardly reassuring (encouraging, promising, hopeful, heartening). While policymakers will, therefore, need to stay focused on containing (control, limit, curb, restrain, reduce, lessen, decrease) inflation, the rising uncertainty (unpredictability, unreliability, riskiness/precariousness) about the growth momentum sustaining (continue, carry on, keep up, maintain, bolster up) in the face of the heightened (increased, intensified, amplified) risks of a recession (economic decline, slowdown, downturn, depression, slump) in advanced economies raises the risk that higher credit costs may further dampen consumption. Yet, failure to engender enduring (continuing, lasting, persisting) price stability (no (drastic) change in the price of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. It implies avoiding both prolonged inflation and deflation) could lead to stagflation. Unless supply side measures such as GST rationalisation (systematisation, formalisation, rationale, justification) and fuel price cuts are expedited (speed up, accelerate, step up, quicken), the overall macroeconomic outlook appears worrying.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.stagflation (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मुद्रास्फीतिजनित मंदी
English Meaning - a period of rising inflation, slowing economic growth & rising unemployment. (inflation is the sustained/continuous rise in the overall price level of goods and services in the economy).

2.macroeconomic (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - व्यापक आर्थिक
English Meaning - relating to the branch of economics concerned with large-scale factors (interest rates/national productivity).

3.development (noun)

Hindi Meaning - विकास, परिस्थिति
English Meaning - turn of events, happening, circumstance, situation.

4.debilitate (verb)

Hindi Meaning - दुर्बल करना
English Meaning - weaken, paralyze, immobilize, disable, undermine, exhaust.

5.National Statistical Office (NSO) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - राष्ट्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय
English Meaning - The Ministry of Statistics and the Department of Programme Implementation has two wings, one relating to Statistics and the other Programme Implementation. The Statistics Wing called the National Statistical Office (NSO) gives considerable importance to coverage and quality aspects of statistics released in the country. The statistics released are based on administrative sources, surveys and censuses conducted by the Center and State Governments and non-official sources and studies.

6.belie (verb)

Hindi Meaning - झुठलाना
English Meaning - contradict, disprove, falsify, discredit, distort.

7.forecast (noun)

Hindi Meaning - पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी
English Meaning - prediction, indication, projection, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).

8.inflation (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मुद्रा स्फ़ीति
English Meaning - simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value.

9.soften (verb)

Hindi Meaning - नरम होना, कम करना
English Meaning - decrease, reduce, lessen, moderate.

10.basis point (BPS) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - बुनियादी निर्देश
English Meaning - a unit of measure used in finance to describe the percentage change in the value or rate of a financial instrument. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01% (1/100th of a percent). Used for measuring change in interest rate/yield.

11.hover (verb)

Hindi Meaning - मंडराना
English Meaning - remain at a level.

12.persistently (adverb)

Hindi Meaning - लगातार
English Meaning - continuously, constantly.

13.monetary authority (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मौद्रिक प्राधिकरण
English Meaning - it refers to the institution (mostly central bank) responsible for managing the currency of a country, establishing interest rates, and controlling its money supply. The goals of a country’s central bank include stabilizing prices, fostering economic growth, and increasing employment. (The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the central bank and financial regulatory authority of India.

14.authorities (noun)

Hindi Meaning - प्राधिकारी
English Meaning - officials, officialdom, the people in charge, the government the bureaucracy.

15.The monetary policy committee (MPC) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मौद्रिक नीति समिति
English Meaning - it is a six-member panel that is expected to bring “value and transparency” to rate-setting decisions. It will feature three members from the RBI — the Governor, a Deputy Governor and another official — and three independent members to be selected by the Government. The MPC will meet four times a year to decide on monetary policy by a majority vote.

16.spectre (noun)

English Meaning - threat, menace, danger/peril.

17.outlook (noun)

English Meaning - expectations, prospects, expectancy, future, lookout.

18.dampen (verb)

English Meaning - lessen, moderate, abate, diminish, reduce.

19.head for (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - proceed or go in a certain direction; go toward.

20.spell (verb)

English Meaning - signal, point to, bring about, bring on, result in, lead to, cause.

21.debilitating (adjective)

English Meaning - weakening, disabling, exhausting, undermining, impairing, paralyzing, immobilizing.

22.Retail or Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation (noun)

English Meaning - The change in the price index of the basket of consumer goods and services over a period of time is referred to as CPI-based inflation or retail inflation.

23.reading (noun)

English Meaning - figure, indication, measurement, record.

24.log (verb)

English Meaning - register, record; achieve.

25.price gain (noun)

English Meaning - a general increase in the price of something.

26.as to (phrase)

English Meaning - concerning, respecting, with respect to, on the subject of, as regards, regarding.

27.drag down (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - bring something to a lower level.

28.headline inflation (noun)

English Meaning - it is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, including commodities such as food and energy prices.

29.core inflation (noun)

English Meaning - it is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, excluding commodities such as food and energy prices (which change frequently).

30.come true (phrase)

English Meaning - be fulfilled, be realized, become a reality, happen, occur, take place.

31.look (noun)

English Meaning - observation, examination, inspection, view ,study.

32.drive (verb)

English Meaning - prompt, push, press, force, exert.

33.strip out (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - to remove some integral element/aspect of something.

34.elevated (adjective)

English Meaning - increased, raised.

35.benchmark (noun)

English Meaning - standard, base/basis, point of reference, criterion, ideal.

36.benchmark interest rate (noun)

English Meaning - a minimal/minimum interest rate set and published by commercial banks for accumulating interest on different credit types.

37.reveal (verb)

English Meaning - indicate, show, point to, suggest, signal, signify, denote.

38.tamp down (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - reduce, press down, compress.

39.so as to (phrase)

English Meaning - in order to.

40.cite (verb)

English Meaning - mention, point to, refer to.

41.persistence (noun)

English Meaning - continuance, continuity, dependability, changelessness.

42.justification (noun)

English Meaning - grounds, reason, rationale, basis, explanation, excuse, vindication.

43.tightening (noun)

English Meaning - an act of making something stricter/rigorous.

44.monetary policy (noun)

English Meaning - monetary policy refers to the use of monetary instruments under the control of the central bank to regulate magnitudes such as interest rates, money supply, and availability of credit with a view to achieving the ultimate objective of economic policy mentioned in the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.

45.queer the pitch (phrase)

English Meaning - to spoil something that someone had planned to do (in order to achieve something).

46.basket (noun)

English Meaning - a group of something (taxes, investments, commodities, food items and etc.).

47.disconcerting (adjective)

English Meaning - discomfiting, unsettling, disturbing, troubling.

48.marginal (adjective)

English Meaning - slight, small, minimal, insignificant, negligible.

49.deceleration (noun)

English Meaning - slowing down, easing off, reduction, diminishing, lessening.

50.composite (adjective)

English Meaning - combined/complex.

51.index (noun)

English Meaning - an (economic) data figure reflecting something (e.g. price/quantity) compared with a standard or base value; pointer, indicator.

52.food price index (noun)

English Meaning - a measure of the monthly change in prices of a basket of food commodities.

53.account for (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - constitute, make up, comprise, form, compose, represent.

54.Consumer Price Index (CPI) (noun)

English Meaning - The CPI looks at the basket of consumer goods and services and it measures the change in price of this basket over a period of time. To put it simply, the CPI monitors retail prices at a certain level for a particular commodity.

55.significantly (adverb)

English Meaning - considerably, substantially, appreciably.

56.register (verb)

English Meaning - achieve; record, show, display.

57.year-on-year (adjective)

English Meaning - year over year (for comparison).

58.sequential (adjective)

English Meaning - happened in sequence/order/succession.

59.hardening (noun)

English Meaning - a process (of price of something) rising, increasing (and be firm at a higher level).

60.harden (verb)

English Meaning - (of price of something) rise, increase (and be firm at a higher level).

61.staple (adjective)

English Meaning - most important element of something; main, principal, major, primary, leading, foremost element of something .

62.cereal (noun)

English Meaning - a grain or plants that produce it (for example-wheat, maize, rice & etc.).

63.headline (adjective)

English Meaning - relating to a rate of inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI).

64.surge (verb)

English Meaning - accelerate, step up, increase, quicken, rise.

65.tad (adverb)

English Meaning - rather, quite, moderately, a little.

66.likely (adjective)

English Meaning - possible, potential, probable.

67.El Nino (noun)

English Meaning - an unusual/abnormal warming of the waters across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that lies closer to the Americas). La Niña means abnormal cooling.

68.hardly (adverb)

English Meaning - barely, almost not.

69.reassuring (adjective)

English Meaning - encouraging, promising, hopeful, heartening.

70.contain (verb)

English Meaning - control, limit, curb, restrain, reduce, lessen, decrease.

71.uncertainty (noun)

English Meaning - unpredictability, unreliability, riskiness/precariousness.

72.sustain (verb)

English Meaning - continue, carry on, keep up, maintain, bolster up.

73.momentum (noun)

English Meaning - the increase in the rate of growth of something; strength, impetus.

74.in the face of (phrase)

English Meaning - despite, notwithstanding, regardless of; when confronted with.

75.heightened (adjective)

English Meaning - increased, intensified, amplified.

76.recession (noun)

English Meaning - economic decline, slowdown, downturn, depression, slump.

77.engender (verb)

English Meaning - cause, give rise to, bring about, produce, create, (a particular feeling, atmosphere, or situation).

78.enduring (adjective)

English Meaning - continuing, lasting, persisting.

79.price stability (noun)

English Meaning - no (drastic) change in the price of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. It implies avoiding both prolonged inflation and deflation.

80.lead to (verb)

English Meaning - result in, cause, bring on, bring about, give rise to.

81.measure (noun)

English Meaning - action, act, step, procedure.

82.rationalisation (noun)

English Meaning - systematisation, formalisation, rationale, justification.

83.expedite (verb)

English Meaning - speed up, accelerate, step up, quicken.