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Probability Test - 20

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Probability Test - 20
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  • Question 1
    1 / -0
    Let $$A$$ and $$B$$ are events of an experiment and $$P(A)=\dfrac 14,  P(A \cup B) = \dfrac 12$$, then value of $$ P(\dfrac B{A^c}) $$ is
    Solution
    Given $$P(A)=\cfrac { 1 }{ 4 } $$
    $$P\left( A\bigcup { B }  \right) =\cfrac { 1 }{ 2 } $$
    $$P\left( \cfrac { B }{ { A }^{ c } }  \right) =\cfrac { P\left( B\bigcap { { A }^{ c } }  \right)  }{ P\left( { A }^{ c } \right)  } $$
    $$=\cfrac { P(B)-P\left( B\bigcap { { A } }  \right)  }{ 1-P(A) } $$
    $$\because P\left( A\bigcup { B }  \right) =P(A)+P(B)-P\left( A\bigcap { { B } }  \right) $$
    $$\therefore P(B)-P\left( A\bigcap { { B } }  \right) =P\left( A\bigcup { B }  \right) -P(A)$$
    $$=\cfrac { 1 }{ 2 } -\cfrac { 1 }{ 4 } =\cfrac { 1 }{ 4 } $$
    and $$1-P(A)=1-\cfrac { 1 }{ 4 } =\cfrac { 3 }{ 4 } $$
    (Substituting the values)
    $$\therefore P\left( \cfrac { B }{ { A }^{ c } }  \right) =\cfrac { { 1 }/{ 4 } }{ { 3 }/{ 4 } } =\cfrac { 1 }{ 3 } $$

  • Question 2
    1 / -0
    There are 10 pairs of shoes in a cupboards, from which 4 shoes are picked at random. The probability that there is at least one pair, is..........
    Solution
    The total number of ways of choosing $$4$$ shoes (in order)
     out of $$10$$ pairs (or $$20$$ shoes) is $$20\times 19\times 18\times 17$$
    The number of ways in which pair is selected is $$20\times 18\times 16\times 14$$
    Thus the probability of not getting a pair is $$\displaystyle\frac { 20\times 18\times 16\times 14 }{ 20\times 19\times 18\times 17 } =\frac { 224 }{ 323 } $$

    Hence, the probability of getting atleast one pair is $$\displaystyle 1-\frac { 224 }{ 323 } =\frac { 99 }{ 323 }$$ 
  • Question 3
    1 / -0
    Three groups $$A,\ B,\ C$$ are contesting for positions on the Board of Directors of a company. The probabilities of their winning are $$0.5,\ 0.3, 0.2$$ respectively. If the group $$A$$ wins, the probability of introducing a new product is $$0.7$$ and the corresponding probabilities for groups $$B$$ and $$C$$ are $$0.6$$ and $$0.5$$ respectively. The probability that the new product will be introduced is given by
    Solution
    $$P\left( A \right) =0.5,P\left( B \right) =0.3,P\left( C \right) =0.2$$

    If $$N$$ is for introducing new product, then

    $$P\left( N|A \right) =0.7,P\left( N|B \right) =0.6,P\left( N|C \right) =0.5$$

    Therefore,

    $$P\left( N \right) =P\left( A \right) \times P\left( N|A \right) +P\left( B \right) \times P\left( N|B \right) +P\left( C \right) \times P\left( N|C \right) \\ =0.5\times 0.7+0.3\times 0.6+0.2\times 0.5=0.63$$
  • Question 4
    1 / -0
    A box contains $$100$$ tickets numbered $$1,2,3,...,100.$$ two tickets are chosen at random. If it is given that the maximum number on the two chosen tickets is not more than $$10$$, then the probability that the minimum number on them is not less than $$5$$ is
    Solution
    Let $$E$$ be the event: ''the maximum number is not more than $$10$$'' and $$F:$$ ''minimum number is not less $$5$$''
    Now $$\displaystyle P\left( E \right) =\dfrac { _{  }^{ 10 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } }{ _{  }^{ 100 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } } $$ and $$P\left( E\cap F \right) =P\quad $$ (number on the selected tickets is from $$5$$ to $$10$$) 
    $$=\displaystyle \dfrac { _{  }^{ 6 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } }{ _{  }^{ 100 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } } $$
    $$(\because $$ there are six tickets with such numbers$$)$$
    $$\therefore$$ Required probability$$\displaystyle =P\left( \dfrac { F }{ E }  \right) $$
    $$\displaystyle =\dfrac { P\left( E\cap F \right)  }{ P\left( E \right)  } =\dfrac { \dfrac { _{  }^{ 6 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } }{ _{  }^{ 100 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } }  }{ \dfrac { _{  }^{ 10 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } }{ _{  }^{ 100 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } }  } =\dfrac { 15 }{ 45 } =\dfrac { 1 }{ 3 } .$$
  • Question 5
    1 / -0
    A box contains $$100$$ tickets numbered $$1,2,.....100$$. Two tickets are chosen at random. It is given that the minimum number on the two chosen tickets is not more than $$10$$. The maximum number on them is $$5$$ with probability.
    Solution
    Let $$A$$ be the event that the maximum number pn the two chosen tickets is not more than 10, and B be the event that the minimum number on them is 5.
    $$\displaystyle \therefore P\left( A\cap B \right) =\frac { _{  }^{ 5 }{ { C }_{ 1 } } }{ ^{ 100 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } } $$ and $$\displaystyle P\left( A \right) =\frac { _{  }^{ 10 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } }{ ^{ 100 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } } $$

    Then $$\displaystyle P\left( \frac { B }{ A }  \right) =\frac { P\left( A\cap B \right)  }{ P\left( A \right)  } =\frac { _{  }^{ 5 }{ { C }_{ 1 } } }{ ^{ 10 }{ { C }_{ 2 } } } =\frac { 1 }{ 9 } $$
  • Question 6
    1 / -0
    An experiment has $$10$$ equally likely outcomes. Let $$A$$ and $$B$$ be two non-empty events of the experiment. If $$A$$ consists of $$4$$ outcomes, the number of outcomes that $$B$$ must have so that $$A$$ and $$B$$ are independent, is
    Solution
    Since the Set $$A$$ has $$4$$ out of $$10$$ outcomes, we have $$\displaystyle P\left( A \right) = \frac{4}{{10}}$$

    Similarly, let set $$B$$ has $$k$$ outcomes, then we have $$\displaystyle P\left( B \right) = \frac{k}{{10}}$$
    Now, let $$A$$ and $$B$$ have $$m$$ outcomes in common i.e., $$\left| {A \cap B} \right| =m$$, then $$m\le \left|A\right|=4$$.
    Hence, 
    $$\displaystyle P\left( {A \cap B} \right)=\frac{m}{{10}}$$.
    Now, $$\displaystyle P\left( {\left. A \right|B} \right) = \dfrac{{P\left( {A \cap B} \right)}}{{P\left( B \right)}} = \dfrac{{\dfrac{m}{{10}}}}{{\dfrac{k}{{10}}}} = \dfrac{m}{k}$$
    But, $$P\left( {A \cap B} \right)= P\left( A \right) \times P\left( B  \right)$$ as $$A$$ and $$B$$ are independent.
    $$\therefore \displaystyle P\left( {\left. A \right|B} \right) =P\left( A \right) = \frac{4}{{10}}$$
    Hence, $$\displaystyle \frac{m}{k} = \frac{4}{{10}} = \frac{2}{5}$$
    $$2k = 5m$$
    The only integral answers for $$m$$ are $$0, 2,$$ and $$4$$. 

    If $$m=0 \Rightarrow  k=0$$, contrary to the given fact that $$B$$ is a non-empty event. 
    Therefore, $$m$$ must be equal to either to either $$2$$ or $$4$$, which gives us values of $$k$$ as $$5$$ or $$10$$.
  • Question 7
    1 / -0
    If $$\overline { E } $$ and $$\overline { F } $$ are the complementary events of events $$E$$ and $$F$$ respectively and if $$0<P(F)<1$$, then
    Solution
    $$\displaystyle P\left( \frac { E }{ F }  \right) +P\left( \frac { \overline { E }  }{ F }  \right) $$
    $$\displaystyle =\frac { P\left( E\cap F \right)  }{ P\left( F \right)  } +\frac { P\left( \overline { E } \cap F \right)  }{ P\left( F \right)  } =\frac { P\left( E\cap F \right) +P\left( \overline { E } \cap F \right)  }{ P\left( F \right)  } $$
    $$\displaystyle =\frac { P\left\{ \left( E\cap F \right) \cup \left( \overline { E } \cap F \right)  \right\}  }{ P\left( F \right)  } $$   $$\displaystyle [\because E\cap F$$ and $$\overline { E } \cap F$$ are disjoint$$]$$
    $$\displaystyle =\frac { P\left\{ \left( E\cup \overline { E }  \right) \cap F \right\}  }{ P\left( F \right)  } =\frac { P\left( S\cap F \right)  }{ P\left( F \right)  } =\frac { P\left( F \right)  }{ P\left( F \right)  } =1.$$
  • Question 8
    1 / -0
    A man is known to speak the truth $$3$$ out of $$4$$ times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. The probability that it is really a six is
    Solution
    Let $${ E }_{ 1 },{ E }_{ 2 }$$ and $$A$$ be the events defined as follows:
    $${ E }_{ 1 }=$$ die shows six, i.e., six has occured.
    $${ E }_{ 2 }=$$ dei does not show six i.e., six has not occured.
    $$A=$$ the man reports that six has occured.
    We have to calculate that six has actually occured 
    given that the man reports that six occurs i.e., $$\displaystyle P\left( \dfrac { { E }_{ 1 } }{ A }  \right) $$
    Now, $$\displaystyle P\left( { E }_{ 1 } \right) =\dfrac { 1 }{ 6 } ,P\left( { E }_{ 2 } \right) =\dfrac { 5 }{ 6 } $$
    $$\displaystyle P\left( \dfrac { A }{ { E }_{ 1 } }  \right)= $$ probability that the man reports that six occured given that six has occured.
    $$=$$ probability that the man is reporting the truth.$$\displaystyle=\dfrac { 3 }{ 4 } $$
    And $$\displaystyle P\left( \dfrac { A }{ { E }_{ 2 } }  \right) =$$probability that the man reports that six occured given that six has not occured.
    $$=$$ probability that the man does not speak truth $$\displaystyle=\dfrac { 1 }{ 4 } $$
    By Bayes' Theorem,
    $$\displaystyle P\left( \dfrac { { E }_{ 1 } }{ A }  \right) =\dfrac { P\left( { E }_{ 1 } \right) P\left( \dfrac { A }{ { E }_{ 1 } }  \right)  }{ P\left( { E }_{ 1 } \right) P\left( \dfrac { A }{ { E }_{ 1 } }  \right) +P\left( { E }_{ 2 } \right) P\left( \dfrac { A }{ { E }_{ 2 } }  \right)  } $$
    $$\displaystyle=\dfrac { \dfrac { 1 }{ 6 } .\dfrac { 3 }{ 4 }  }{ \dfrac { 1 }{ 6 } .\dfrac { 3 }{ 4 } +\dfrac { 5 }{ 6 } .\dfrac { 1 }{ 4 }  } =\dfrac { 3 }{ 8 } $$
  • Question 9
    1 / -0
    Suppose $$n(\ge 3)$$ persons are sitting in row. Two of them are selected at random. The probability that they are not together is
    Solution
    The total number of ways of choosing $$2$$ persons out of $$n$$ is $$_{  }^{ n }{ { C }_{ 2 } }$$
    After selecting two persons when the remaining $$n-2$$ persons sit in a row $$(n-1)$$ places are created between them in which $$2$$ persons can be arranged in $$_{  }^{ n-1 }{ { C }_{ 2 } }.2!$$ ways.
    So, the required probability $$\displaystyle =\frac { ^{ n-1 }{ { C }_{ 2 } }.2! }{ ^{ n }{ { C }_{ 2 } } } =\frac { n-2 }{ n } =1-\frac { 2 }{ n } $$
  • Question 10
    1 / -0
    Let $$A = {2, 3, 4, ... , 20, 21}$$. A number is chosen at random from the set $$A$$ and it is found to be a prime number. The probability that it is more than $$10$$ is
    Solution

    P ( A|B ) = P(A & B)/ P(B)
    B = getting prime number
    A = getting number greater than 10
    P ( A|B ) = $$\dfrac { 4/20 }{ 8/20 } $$ = 1/2
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