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Probability Test - 53

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Probability Test - 53
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  • Question 1
    1 / -0
    There are three boxes, each containing a different number of light bulbs. The first box has 10 bulbs, of which four are dead, the second box has six bulbs, of which one is dead, and the third box has eight bulbs of which three are dead. What is the probability of a dead bulb being selected when a bulb is chosen at random from one of the three boxes?
    Solution
    Let $$𝐴_1, 𝐴_2, 𝐴_3$$ denotes the events of selecting bulbs from bags $$1,2\: and\: 3$$ respectively. 

    Let $$𝐵$$ denotes the event the bulbs selected are dead.

    $$ 𝑃(𝐴_1) = 𝑃(𝐴_2)  = 𝑃(𝐴_3)  = \dfrac{1}{3} $$

    Also $$P(B|A_1)=\dfrac{4}{10}, P(B|A_2)=\dfrac{1}{6}, P(B|A_3)=\dfrac{3}{8}$$

    By law of total probability,

    $$P(B)=P(A_1)P(B|A_1)+P(A_2)P(B|A_2)+P(A_3)P(B|A_3)$$

    Substituting the values we get,

    $$P(B)=\dfrac{1}{3} \times \dfrac{4}{10}+ \dfrac{1}{3} \times \dfrac{1}{6}+ \dfrac{1}{3} \times \dfrac{3}{8}$$

    $$\Rightarrow P(B)=\dfrac{113}{360}$$

    Thus the probability of a dead bulb being selected when a bulb is chosen at random from one of the three boxes is $$\dfrac{113}{360}$$.


  • Question 2
    1 / -0
    Suppose that two factories supply light bulbs to the market. Factory X's bulbs work for over $$5000$$ hours in $$99\%$$ of cases, whereas factory Y's bulbs work for over $$5000$$ hours in $$95\%$$ of cases. It is known that factory X supplies $$60\%$$ of the total bulbs available. What is the chance that a purchased bulb will work for longer than $$5000$$ hours?
    Solution
    Let $$X$$ be the event "comes from factory $$X$$" and $$Y$$ be the event "comes fom factory $$Y$$ " and Let $$H$$ be the event "works over $$5000$$ hours." 

    Therefore $$P(X)=60 \%=0.60 \Rightarrow P(Y)=1-0.60=0.40$$

    Given that, Factory $$X's$$ bulbs work for over $$5000$$ hours in $$99 \%$$ of cases.

    $$\therefore P(H|X)=99 \%=0.99$$

    Also given, factory Y's bulbs work for over $$$000$$5000$$ hours in %$$95\%$$  of cases.

    $$\therefore P(H|Y)=95 \%=0.95$$

    Then by the Law of Total Probability we have

     $$P(H) = P (H | X) P(X) + P (H | Y ) P(Y ) $$

                $$= (.99) (.6) + (.95) (.4)$$

                $$ = .974$$

    Thus $$P(H)=0.974=\dfrac{974}{1000}$$.


  • Question 3
    1 / -0
    If $$X$$ is a discrete random variable then which of the following is correct?
    Solution

  • Question 4
    1 / -0
    A letter is known to have come either from TATANAGAR or from CALCUTTA. On the envelope just two Consecutive letters TA are visible. What is the probability that the letters came from TATANAGAR ? 
    Solution
    Let $$E_1$$ denote the event that the letter came from TATANAGAR and $$E_2$$ denote the event that the letter came from CALCUTTA.

    Let $$A$$ be the event that the two consecutive alphabets visible on the envelope are TA.

    Since the letters have come from either Calcutta or Tatanagar.

    Therefore, $$P(E_1)=\dfrac{1}{2}, P(E_2)=\dfrac{1}{2}$$

    If $$E_1$$ has occurred then the letter has come from TATANAGAR. In the word TATANAGAR there are $$8$$ consecutive alphabets $$i.e.,\{TA,AT,TA,AN,NA,AG,GA,AR\}$$ and TA occurs two times.

    $$\therefore P(A/E_1)=\dfrac{2}{8}=\dfrac{1}{4}$$

    If $$E_2$$ has occurred then the letter has come from CALCUTTA. In the word CALCUTTA there are $$7$$ consecutive alphabets $$i.e.,\{CA,AL,LC,CU,UT,TT,TA\}$$ and TA occurs once.

    $$\therefore P(A/E_2)=\dfrac{1}{7}$$

    The probability that the letter has come from TATANAGAR is $$P(E_1/A)$$

    By Bayes theorem, $$P(E_1/A)=\dfrac{P(E_1)P(A/E_1)}{P(E_1)P(A/E_1)+P(E_2)P(A/E_2)}$$

                                                       $$=\dfrac{\dfrac{1}{2}\times \dfrac{1}{4}}{\dfrac{1}{2}\times\dfrac{1}{4}+\dfrac{1}{2}+\dfrac{1}{7}}$$

                                                      $$=\dfrac{\dfrac{1}{8}}{\dfrac{1}{8}+\dfrac{1}{14}}$$

    $$\therefore P(E_1/A)=\dfrac{7}{11}$$

    Hence the probability that the letter has come from TATANAGAR is $$\dfrac{7}{11}$$.



  • Question 5
    1 / -0
    For the events $$A$$ and $$B, P(A) = \dfrac {3}{4}, P(B) = \dfrac {1}{5}, P(A\cap B) = \dfrac {1}{20}$$ then $$P(A/B) =$$ ___________.
    Solution
    Given $$P(A)=\dfrac{3}{4}$$, $$P(B)=\dfrac{1}{5}$$, $$P(A\cap B)=\dfrac{1}{20}$$.

    We have to find $$P(A/B)$$.

    We know that $$P(A/B)=\dfrac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}$$.

    Substituting the values we get

    $$P(A/B)=\dfrac{\dfrac{1}{20}}{\dfrac{1}{5}}$$

                    $$=\dfrac{5}{20}$$

    $$\therefore P(A/B)=\dfrac{1}{4}$$
  • Question 6
    1 / -0

    Directions For Questions

    A bag contains 6 balls of 3 different colours namely White, Green and Red, atleast one ball of each different colour. Assume all possible probability distributions are equally likely. 

    ...view full instructions

    The probability that the bag contains 2 balls of each colour, is 
  • Question 7
    1 / -0
    A random variable $$X$$ has the following probability distribution:

    $$X$$012345
    $$P(X=x)$$$$\cfrac{1}{4}$$$$2a$$$$3a$$$$4a$$$$5a$$$$\cfrac{1}{4}$$
     Then $$P(1\le X\le 4)$$ is:

    Solution
    We know that $$\sum P(X=x)=1$$

    $$\Rightarrow \dfrac{1}{4}+2a+3a+4a+5a+\dfrac{1}{4}=1$$

    $$\Rightarrow \dfrac{1}{2}+14a=1$$

    $$\Rightarrow 14a=1-\dfrac{1}{2}$$

    $$\Rightarrow 14a=\dfrac{1}{2}$$

    $$\Rightarrow a=\dfrac{1}{28}$$

    Now we have to find $$P(1\leq x \leq 4)$$

    $$P(1\leq x \leq 4)=P(x=1)+P(x=2)+P(x=3)+P(x=4)$$

                              $$=2a+3a+4a+5a$$

                              $$=14a$$

                              $$=14 \left(\dfrac{1}{28}\right) \quad \left[\because a=\dfrac{1}{28}\right]$$

                              $$=\dfrac{1}{2}$$

    $$\therefore P(1\leq x \leq 4)=\dfrac{1}{2}$$
  • Question 8
    1 / -0
    The distribution of a random variable X is given below:  
    X = x2-10123
    P(X = x)$$\frac{1}{10}$$k$$\frac{1}{5}$$2k$$\frac{3}{10}$$k
    Solution

  • Question 9
    1 / -0
    Let the p.m.f. of a random variable $$X$$ be -
    $$P(x) = \dfrac {3 - x}{10}$$ for $$x = -1, 0, 1, 2 $$ otherwise
    Then $$E(X)$$ is _________.
    Solution
     $$x$$ $$-1$$ $$0$$ $$1$$ $$2$$
     $$P(x)$$ $$\dfrac{4}{10}$$ $$\dfrac{3}{10}$$ $$\dfrac{2}{10}$$ $$\dfrac{1}{10}$$
     $$x\cdot P(x)$$$$-\dfrac{4}{10}$$  $$0$$ $$\dfrac{2}{10}$$ $$\dfrac{2}{10}$$

    We have to find $$E(X)$$

    We know that $$E(X)=\sum x\cdot P(x)$$

    $$\therefore E(X)=-\dfrac{4}{10}+0+\dfrac{2}{10}+\dfrac{2}{10}=0$$

    Hence $$E(X)=0$$
  • Question 10
    1 / -0
    There is a probability that 4 out of 10 students appearing in CA CPT exams will qualify for CA course after passing CA CPT exam, the probability that of 5 students none will join CA course is.......
    Solution
    Total no. students $$=10$$
    $$\Rightarrow$$ Probability of students will qualify $$=\dfrac{4}{10}$$
    $$\Rightarrow$$ Probability of students who will not qualify $$=\dfrac{6}{10}$$
    i.e, $$p=\dfrac{4}{10}$$     $$q=\dfrac{6}{10}$$      $$r=5$$
    Probability that out of $$5$$ students none will join CA
    By Bemoulli's equation,
    $$\Rightarrow {^nC_rp^rq^{n-r}}={^5C_0}\left( \dfrac { 4 }{ 10 }  \right) ^{ 0 }\left( \dfrac {6 }{ 10 }  \right) ^{ 5 }=0.077\sim 0.08$$
    Hence, the answer is $$0.08.$$
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