Concept:
Binomial distribution:
Let p is the probability that an event will happen in a single trail (called the probability of success) and
q = 1 – p is the probability that an event will fail to happen (probability of failure)
The probability that the event will happen exactly r times in n trails (i.e. x successes and n – r failures will occur) is given by the probability function
\(f\left( x \right) = P\left( {X = r} \right) = {n_{{C_r}}}{p^r}{q^{n - r}}\)
where the random variable X denotes the number of successes in n trials and r = 0, 1, 2, … n
For Binomial distribution,
Mean = μ = np
Variance = σ2 = npq
Standard deviation = σ = √(npq)
Calculation:
Let V be the event that occurs in a trial with probability p. Mathematical expectation E of the number of trials to first occurrence of V in a sequence of trials is E = 1/p.
Similarly, the expected number of trials to get nth success = n/p
Given that, the probability (p) = 1/5 = 0.2
The expected number of trials to get first success = 1/0.2 = 5
So, the expected number of failures preceding the first success is 4
The expected number of trials to get second success = 2/0.2 = 10
Expected number of successes in first 50 trials = np = 50 × 0.2 = 10