Concept
Certainty of project can be determined by comparing standard deviation
Standard deviation (σ ) is given by,
\(\sigma = \frac{{{t_p} - {t_o}}}{6}\)
Expected completion of time (tE) is given by
\({t_E} = \frac{{{t_o} \;+ \;4\; \times \;{t_m} \;+ \;{t_p}}}{6}\)
Where, tp is pessimistic time
tm is most likely time
to is optimistic time
Calculation
Given,
For contractor P (t0) = 5, (tm) = 10, (tP) = 13
Standard deviation \(\sigma = \frac{{{t_p} - {t_o}}}{6} = \frac{{13 - 5}}{6}\) = 1.33
Expected time (TE) = \(\frac{{{t_o}\; + \;4\; \times\; {t_m}\; + \;{t_p}}}{6} = \frac{{5\; + \;4 \;\times \;10\; + \;13}}{6}\) = 9.67
For contractor Q (t0) = 6, (tm) = 9, (tP) = 12
Standard deviation \(\sigma = \frac{{{t_p} - {t_o}}}{6} = \frac{{12 - 6}}{6}\) = 1
Expected time (TE) = \(\frac{{{t_o}\; + \;4\; \times\; {t_m}\; +\; {t_p}}}{6} = \frac{{6\; + \;4\; \times\; 9\; + \;12}}{6}\) = 9
For contractor R (t0) = 5, (tm) = 10, (tP) = 14
Standard deviation \(\sigma = \frac{{{t_p} - {t_o}}}{6} = \frac{{14 - 5}}{6}\) = 1.5
Expected time (TE) = \(\frac{{{t_o}\; + \;4\; \times \;{t_m}\; + \;{t_p}}}{6} = \frac{{5\; + \;4\; \times \;10\; + \;14}}{6}\) = 9.833
For contractor S (t0) = 4, (tm) = 10, (tP) = 13
Standard deviation \(\sigma = \frac{{{t_p} - {t_o}}}{6} = \frac{{13 - 4}}{6}\) = 1.5
Expected time (TE) = \(\frac{{{t_o}\; + \;4\; \times\; {t_m}\; + \;{t_p}}}{6} = \frac{{4\; +\; 4 \;\times \;10\; + \;13}}{6}\) = 9.5
Since the time estimate of Contractor Q has least standard deviation (i.e. 1). So work can be completed by him in most certain manner.