Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Growth prescription: On the latest World Economic Outlook

Growth prescription: On the latest World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s ‘mediocre (औसत, साधारण)’ medium-term outlook merits policy attention

The latest World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has some good tidings, and some ominous (अशुभ, अनिष्टसूचक) assessments. The good news — that largely pertains (संबंधित होना) to the short term — is that a much-feared global recession (आर्थिक मंदी, मन्दी) has been averted, the global war against inflation ‘almost’ won, and growth is holding steady (स्थिर, सुदृढ़). The U.S. is likely to grow faster this year than anticipated earlier, balancing out lower estimates for some large European nations. Among developing countries, the IMF downgraded growth hopes for West Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia as conflicts and unrest disrupt (बाधित करना, अव्यवस्था करना) production and shipping. However, brighter prospects for emerging Asia, enhanced by higher public investments in China and India, offset those downward pressures. The IMF expects the world to grow 3.2% in 2024, as in 2023. The moderation in inflation has been partly attributed to the unwinding of shocks since the COVID-19 pandemic (महामारी) and the Ukraine war, but tight monetary policies played a crucial role too, it noted. With inflation returning near central banks’ targets, there is now room for pivoting (To turn or rotate, especially on a central point; a key role or position) monetary policy to a neutral stance and supporting economic activity. Yet, the IMF has cautioned about food price pressures again in some emerging economies, and services inflation being too high, at almost double the pre-pandemic levels.

For India, the IMF has maintained its GDP growth estimate at 7% for 2024-25, followed by 6.5% next year, but linked the moderation in growth from last year to the exhaustion of “pent-up demand accumulated during the pandemic”. Some of this is visible in car and consumer non-durable sales, with urban demand stumbling. A Reserve Bank of India index pegs second quarter GDP growth at 6.8% — it was 6.7% in the first. The favourable monsoon and improved rural incomes could lift the tide in coming months, but may not be taken for granted yet. Of concern, however, is the IMF’s prognosis that global growth should reach a “mediocre” 3.1% in five years, underwhelming (निराश करना) relative to pre-COVID trends, with protectionist industrial and trade policies gaining more traction. India’s economy may hinge more on domestic momentum but weaker exports and investment flows will not help. The Centre’s recent averments (कथन, जोरदार पुष्टि) on the reform agenda have signalled that most work now needs to be done in the States. While that is a truism, central policymakers also need to work doubly hard to lift potential growth: be it to make India a more open economy by lowering import tariffs and FDI barriers as the World Bank has mooted (विवादास्पद), as well as undertake “ambitious’ domestic reforms to improve competition, economic integration (एकीकरण) and spur private investments, suggested by the IMF.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.Mediocre (Adjective)

Hindi Meaning - औसत, साधारण
English Meaning - Of average quality; not very good.

2.Ominous (Adjective)

Hindi Meaning - अशुभ, अनिष्टसूचक
English Meaning - Giving the impression that something bad or harmful is about to happen.

3.Pertain (Verb)

Hindi Meaning - संबंधित होना
English Meaning - To relate or have a connection to something.

4.Recession (Noun)

Hindi Meaning - आर्थिक मंदी, मन्दी
English Meaning - A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced.

5.Steady (Adjective)

Hindi Meaning - स्थिर, सुदृढ़
English Meaning - Firm, stable, and not prone to change.

6.Disrupt (Verb)

Hindi Meaning - बाधित करना, अव्यवस्था करना
English Meaning - To interrupt or cause disorder in something.

7.Pandemic (Noun)

Hindi Meaning - महामारी
English Meaning - A disease prevalent over a whole country or the world.

8.Underwhelm (Verb)

Hindi Meaning - निराश करना
English Meaning - To fail to impress or excite.

9.Averment (Noun)

Hindi Meaning - कथन, जोरदार पुष्टि
English Meaning - A positive statement or assertion, especially one that is forceful.

10.Integration (Noun)

Hindi Meaning - एकीकरण
English Meaning - The act of combining or incorporating different elements into a unified whole.

11.Moot (Adjective)

Hindi Meaning - विवादास्पद
English Meaning - Subject to debate, dispute, or uncertainty.

12.Pivot (Verb)

English Meaning - To turn or rotate, especially on a central point; a key role or position.