Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Renewed risks: On the RBI and how global uncertainties have compounded

Renewed risks: On the RBI and how global uncertainties have compounded

Fresh global turmoil (उथल-पुथल, अव्यवस्था) clouds the economic outlook for the rest of 2023-24

On October 6, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stuck to its 6.5% GDP (सकल घरेलू उत्पाद) growth projection for the year, with risks from geopolitical (भू-राजनैतिक) tensions (तनाव), economic fragmentation (आर्थिक विखंडन), volatile (turbulent, unstable, unsteady, uncertain) financial markets and an uneven (inconsistent, varying, changeable, fluctuating, irregular, patchy) monsoon, evenly balanced out (बराबर करना) by strengthening (मजबूत करना) domestic demand (घरेलु मांग). There was a belief that a period of heightened (intensified, increased, deepened, aggravated, worsened, compounded) uncertainties (अनिश्चितता) was ebbing but as the central bank (केंद्रीय अधिकोष) Governor signalled last Friday, new uncertainties have emerged over the fortnight (a period of two weeks/fourteen days continuously) since. The Israel-Hamas conflict (टकराव, संघर्ष) that erupted (start suddenly, flare up, burst out, break out, boil over, blow up (of something unwelcome)) a day after the monetary (relating to money/currency; financial, fiscal, pecuniary, budgetary) policy review has widened (broaden, open up, expand, enlarge, extend), and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has flagged (indicate, identify, point out; draw attention to) worries about implications (consequence/outcome, ramification, repercussion) on global food, fuel and fertilizer supplies. Given (considering, taking into account, bearing in mind) India’s dependence (reliance) on fuel and fertilizer imports, disruptions or price spikes (a sharp rise/increase of something) could hurt the macro-economic framework (structure, system, composition), even if the government refrains from (desist from, stop oneself, abstain, forgo, discontinue, hold back) passing on (give, impart, transmit, leave, bequeath, hand down) higher prices to consumers and farmers in the election season. The RBI chief also pointed to rising U.S. bond yields (bond yield is the annualized percentage return that an investor will obtain from buying a bond. In general, the yield of a bond is inversely proportional to its price. This means that as the yield increases, the price decreases (and vice versa)), which hit (reach, attain, touch, arrive at (a particular level)) a 16-year high of 5% this week, mixed data points (any fact or piece of information is a data point. A discrete unit of information is called a data point. A data point can be quantitatively or graphically represented and is typically produced from a measurement or research in a statistical or analytical context) and signals from central banks around the world, as the new unknowns — even as known unknowns such as financial market turmoil — have got more pronounced (noticeable, visible, conspicuous, evident, marked, striking, glaring, obvious). A glimpse (a brief experience; a brief view, a brief look; glance) of this anxiety (worry, concern, apprehension, distress, disquiet, worry) was visible this week, with the sharpest sell-off (selling of something (commodity/share) which causes fall in price) on Indian bourses (stock exchange (specifically an exchange in Europe, excluding the UK), stock market, securities exchange, money market; (bourse/stock exchange is an organized marketplace where financial securities (such as shares of stock, bonds, and other financial instruments) issued by companies are bought and sold by stockbrokers and traders)) since July.

There is no certainty (assurance, sureness, conviction, conclusiveness) that the RBI would still uphold (maintain, defend, justify, stand by, confirm, endorse/approve, vindicate/validate) its ‘evenly balanced’ outlook towards the risks to growth. However, the Finance Ministry, while acknowledging (accept, recognize, realize) that global uncertainties have compounded, seems largely (mostly, mainly, generally) sanguine (optimistic, hopeful, confident, positive, cheerful (particularly in a difficult situation)) for now in its outlook for the economy. Its monthly economic review released on Monday asserts (state, announce, insist, affirm, swear, avow) that growth “remains on track (on target, on course (to be likely to achieve the result you wish))”, inflation (simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value) is easing after a “temporary” seasonal surge (sudden increase or rise of something) in July-August, consumption demand (the demand for goods and services by individuals and households in the economy) is strengthening and investment demand (the demand by businesses for physical capital goods and services used to maintain or expand its operations) is “also firming up (make/become stronger, strengthen, reinforce, fortify)”. On the “imminent (impending, approaching, coming, on the way, forthcoming, about to happen, in the offing) fears” of rising crude oil (the raw natural resource that is extracted from the earth and refined into products such as gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and other petroleum products) prices, it noted that July-September quarter (a period of three months (considered as one-fourth of a year)) prices were still “way (much) lower” than the $109.5 and $97.9 averages in the first and second quarter of 2022-23. The weak foreign trade picture (concept, idea, notion, view, impression) is expected to recover and industrial job creation prospects (chances, possibilities, expectations, outlook, future) are high for the next two quarters, while higher demand for housing and vehicle loans reflects (indicate, show, display, demonstrate, represent, exhibit) bolstered (strengthened, reinforced, fortified) confidence levels in households (family, house), it added. India’s macro fundamentals may well hold up (sustain, keep up, support, bolster up, shore up) through the latest global storm (trouble, disturbance, controversy), but the government would do well to drill (to engage in an activity; get involved in, penetrate, practice repeatedly) a little deeper into consumption and hiring trends. The last quarter has seen a sharp slump (decrease, decline rapidly, fall sharply, plunge, plummet) in small car sales, consumer non-durables (products/goods (such as food, clothing, fuel, etc.) which are produced for immediate use and frequently replaced by the consumer) producers reporting weak rural demand and IT firms scaling down growth and hiring hopes. There is still much to be done to correct (set right, rectify, improve) an uneven recovery, which would eventually (finally, in the end, ultimately) hamper (prevent, stop, avert, block, hinder, deter) a broader investment revival (improvement, rallying, picking up; re-establishment, reintroduction, restoration).

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.renewed (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - नवीकृत
English Meaning - resumed, returned, restarted, repeated, continued.

2.uncertainty (noun)

Hindi Meaning - अनिश्चितता
English Meaning - unpredictability, unreliability, changeability, inconstancy, riskiness/precariousness; apprehension, quandary, dilemma, misgiving.

3.compound (verb)

Hindi Meaning - मिश्रित करना
English Meaning - increase, intensify, heighten, deepen, escalate, exacerbate, aggravate, worsen.

4.turmoil (noun)

Hindi Meaning - उथल-पुथल, अव्यवस्था
English Meaning - disorder, turbulence, confusion, trouble, chaos.

5.Gross domestic product (GDP) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - सकल घरेलू उत्पाद
English Meaning - a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and service.

6.projection (noun)

Hindi Meaning - अनुमान, भविष्यवाणी
English Meaning - prediction, indication, forecast, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).

7.geopolitical (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - भू-राजनैतिक
English Meaning - relating to (the study of) the geographical factors (a country’s position on the earth, size, climate, and natural resources &, etc.) in world politics and inter-state relations.

8.tensions (noun)

Hindi Meaning - तनाव
English Meaning - strained relations, strain, unease.

9.fragmentation (noun)

Hindi Meaning - विखंडन, विभाजन
English Meaning - separation, division, disunion, decentralization.

10.economic fragmentation (noun)

Hindi Meaning - आर्थिक विखंडन
English Meaning - in economics, fragmentation means organization of production into different stages, which are divided among different suppliers often are located in different countries.

11.balance out (phrasal verb)

Hindi Meaning - बराबर करना
English Meaning - counterbalance, offset, neutralize, compensate.

12.strengthen (verb)

Hindi Meaning - मजबूत करना
English Meaning - increase, reinforce, support, encourage, enhance, intensify.

13.domestic demand (noun)

Hindi Meaning - घरेलु मांग
English Meaning - the expenditure on goods, services and investment made by the residents of a country during a certain period of time.

14.central bank (noun)

Hindi Meaning - केंद्रीय अधिकोष
English Meaning - the banking regulator of a county’s banking system. (e.g. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the central bank of India).

15.conflict (noun)

Hindi Meaning - टकराव, संघर्ष
English Meaning - war, warfare, armed conflict, military action, armed clash.

16.cloud (verb)

English Meaning - make uncertain, make unclear; muddle, confuse, spoil (something).

17.outlook (noun)

English Meaning - prospects, chances, possibilities, expectations, hopes, lookout, future, likely improvement.

18.stick to (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - comply with, abide by, hold to, adhere to, act in accordance with, conform to.

19.volatile (adjective)

English Meaning - turbulent, unstable, unsteady, uncertain.

20.uneven (adjective)

English Meaning - inconsistent, varying, changeable, fluctuating, irregular, patchy.

21.heightened (adjective)

English Meaning - intensified, increased, deepened, aggravated, worsened, compounded.

22.ebb (verb)

English Meaning - diminish, decrease, fade away, disappear; it also means recede, retreat, flow back, go out.

23.fortnight (noun)

English Meaning - a period of two weeks/fourteen days continuously.

24.erupt (verb)

English Meaning - start suddenly, flare up, burst out, break out, boil over, blow up (of something unwelcome).

25.monetary (adjective)

English Meaning - relating to money/currency; financial, fiscal, pecuniary, budgetary.

26.monetary policy (noun)

English Meaning - monetary policy refers to the use of monetary instruments under the control of the central bank to regulate magnitudes such as interest rates, money supply, and availability of credit with a view to achieving the ultimate objective of economic policy mentioned in the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.

27.widen (verb)

English Meaning - broaden, open up, expand, enlarge, extend.

28.flag (verb)

English Meaning - indicate, identify, point out; draw attention to.

29.implications (noun)

English Meaning - consequence/outcome, ramification, repercussion.

30.given (preposition)

English Meaning - considering, taking into account, bearing in mind.

31.dependence (noun)

English Meaning - reliance.

32.spike (noun)

English Meaning - a sharp rise/increase of something.

33.macroeconomic (adjective)

English Meaning - relating to the branch of economics concerned with large-scale factors (interest rates/national productivity).

34.framework (noun)

English Meaning - structure, system, composition.

35.refrain from (verb)

English Meaning - desist from, stop oneself, abstain, forgo, discontinue, hold back.

36.pass on (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - give, impart, transmit, leave, bequeath, hand down.

37.point to (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - indicate, suggest, signal, signify, denote, reveal.

38.bond yield (noun)

English Meaning - bond yield is the annualized percentage return that an investor will obtain from buying a bond. In general, the yield of a bond is inversely proportional to its price. This means that as the yield increases, the price decreases (and vice versa).

39.hit (verb)

English Meaning - reach, attain, touch, arrive at (a particular level).

40.data point (noun)

English Meaning - any fact or piece of information is a data point. A discrete unit of information is called a data point. A data point can be quantitatively or graphically represented and is typically produced from a measurement or research in a statistical or analytical context.

41.unknown unknowns (noun)

English Meaning - unfathomable uncertainty; (‘Known–knowns means ‘knowledge’; ‘Unknown–knowns’ means ‘impact is unknown but existence is known, i.e., untapped knowledge’, ‘Known–unknowns’ means ‘risks’.

42.pronounced (adjective)

English Meaning - noticeable, visible, conspicuous, evident, marked, striking, glaring, obvious.

43.glimpse (noun)

English Meaning - a brief experience; a brief view, a brief look; glance.

44.anxiety (noun)

English Meaning - worry, concern, apprehension, distress, disquiet, worry.

45.sell-off (noun)

English Meaning - selling of something (commodity/share) which causes fall in price.

46.bourse (noun)

English Meaning - stock exchange (specifically an exchange in Europe, excluding the UK), stock market, securities exchange, money market; (bourse/stock exchange is an organized marketplace where financial securities (such as shares of stock, bonds, and other financial instruments) issued by companies are bought and sold by stockbrokers and traders).

47.certainty (noun)

English Meaning - assurance, sureness, conviction, conclusiveness.

48.uphold (verb)

English Meaning - maintain, defend, justify, stand by, confirm, endorse/approve, vindicate/validate.

49.acknowledge (verb)

English Meaning - accept, recognize, realize.

50.largely (adverb)

English Meaning - mostly, mainly, generally.

51.sanguine (adjective)

English Meaning - optimistic, hopeful, confident, positive, cheerful (particularly in a difficult situation).

52.assert (verb)

English Meaning - state, announce, insist, affirm, swear, avow.

53.on track (phrase)

English Meaning - on target, on course (to be likely to achieve the result you wish).

54.inflation (noun)

English Meaning - simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value.

55.ease (verb)

English Meaning - decrease, lessen, diminish, reduce, lower.

56.surge (noun)

English Meaning - sudden increase or rise of something.

57.consumption demand (noun)

English Meaning - the demand for goods and services by individuals and households in the economy.

58.investment demand (noun)

English Meaning - the demand by businesses for physical capital goods and services used to maintain or expand its operations.

59.firm up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - make/become stronger, strengthen, reinforce, fortify.

60.imminent (adjective)

English Meaning - impending, approaching, coming, on the way, forthcoming, about to happen, in the offing.

61.crude oil (noun)

English Meaning - the raw natural resource that is extracted from the earth and refined into products such as gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and other petroleum products.

62.quarter (noun)

English Meaning - a period of three months (considered as one-fourth of a year).

63.way (adverb)

English Meaning - much.

64.picture (noun)

English Meaning - concept, idea, notion, view, impression.

65.prospects (noun)

English Meaning - chances, possibilities, expectations, outlook, future.

66.reflect (verb)

English Meaning - indicate, show, display, demonstrate, represent, exhibit.

67.bolstered (adjective)

English Meaning - strengthened, reinforced, fortified.

68.household (noun)

English Meaning - family, house.

69.macroeconomic fundamentals (noun)

English Meaning - metrics such as unemployment, supply and demand, growth, current account deficit, inflation, forex reserves and all others that affect an economy at-large are called macro fundamentals.

70.hold up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - sustain, keep up, support, bolster up, shore up,

71.storm (noun)

English Meaning - trouble, disturbance, controversy.

72.drill (verb)

English Meaning - to engage in an activity; get involved in, penetrate, practice repeatedly.

73.slump (noun)

English Meaning - decrease, decline rapidly, fall sharply, plunge, plummet.

74.consumer durables (noun)

English Meaning - manufactured products/goods (such as TV, fridge, AC, motorbike, car & etc) which last for an extended period of time.

75.consumer non-durables (noun)

English Meaning - products/goods (such as food, clothing, fuel, etc.) which are produced for immediate use and frequently replaced by the consumer.