Hindi English Translation || Editorial || A cloudy horizon: On trade data

A cloudy horizon: On trade data

Latest trade data underscore the criticality of competitiveness

From a rare upward (rising, ascending, mounting) swing (change, drift, tendency, turnaround) this October, India’s goods exports retreated (move back, withdraw, pull back, recoil, recede, retract) into contraction last month, dipping 2.8% from 2022 levels to touch $33.9 billion. Imports dropped (decrease, decline, lessen, fall, slump, plummet, sink, slip, go down) 4.33% to $54.5 billion, cooling the merchandise (माल) trade deficit (व्यापार घाटा) to $20.6 billion, almost a third below October’s record high. Sequentially (क्रमानुसार), the decline in imports was sharp, despite the Commerce Ministry lowering October’s import bill (आयात बिल) by $1.6 billion from the initial $65 billion estimate. On the other hand (as an alternative, or, as another option, as a substitute), though exports contracted in November, they were higher than October’s tally (गणना), which was the lowest in 12 months, yet denoted (indicate, signify, represent) a year-on-year (साल-दर-साल) uptick (a small increase or upward trend) unlike in November. Such statistical noise (शोर) may be hard to listen through (to notice something in its entirety), but it is clear that exports have recorded their weakest values in a year, over the last two months. Similarly, the significant dip (decrease, drop, decline, reduction, lessening) in imports in November can be attributed (गुण, भाव) to factors like a decline in discretionary (विवेकाधीन) demand for high-value goods such as gems and jewellery and the global dip in prices of key items like petroleum products. Economists expect the deficit (shortfall, deficiency, shortage, undersupply, slippage) to stay range-bound (when a market, or the value of a particular stock, bond, commodity or currency, moves within a relatively tight range for a certain period of time) between $20 billion and 25 billion through the remaining four months of the year. But it is difficult to be certain — one may recall (remember, recollect, think of something from the past) that imports had hit (reach, attain, touch, arrive at (a particular level)) an 11-month high of $60.1 billion in August before easing over 10% in September and resurging in October.

Making sense of such divergences (difference, variance, mismatch, deviation, departure, abnormality, irregularity), with a yo-yo effect (the cyclic loss and gain of something) of sorts every other month, is hazardous (खतरनाक), and is exacerbated (increase, escalate, add to, intensify, heighten, aggravate, make worse) by significant data corrections that have returned after a few months of relative certainty (सापेक्ष निश्चितता). August’s goods trade deficit was moderated (reduce, ease, lessen, decrease) by nearly three billion dollars, with the overall export-import tally seeing revisions of $5 billion. The magnitude (परिमाण) of upward revision in the monthly merchandise trade deficit has averaged around $1.5 billion since July compared to an average of $0.5 billion in the first quarter (तिमाही) of 2023-24, a QuantEco research (it is an independent economics research firm offering nuanced insights on Indian economy covering macros and financial markets. As a leading research house, they specialize in delivering business economics and financial markets intelligence to corporates and investors) note has flagged (झंडा). At the risk of repeating the obvious (स्पष्ट), the government must get a better grip on the data it bases its decisions on. Officials (officer, bureaucrat, office-holder, functionary, mandarin) hope for an uptick in exports in the final quarter of the year, citing similar trends in recent years. With the World Trade Organization (an intergovernmental organization that is concerned with the regulation of international trade between nations) expecting global trade flows (flow of imports and exports between countries) to strengthen (fortify, reinforce, bolster) in 2024 and the US Federal Reserve (the central banking system of the United States (The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is India’s central banking institution)) signalling interest rate cuts that other central banks would take a cue from, global demand (the total demand for final goods and services in all parts of the world) may perhaps (maybe, possibly, probably, conceivably, it is possible (that)) look up (improve, get better, pick up, progress) more consistently. But to capture that, India needs to do more to compete with rivals. For instance (as an example), a rough government-commissioned (employed/appointed by the government) study on logistics (the process of coordinating and moving/transporting resources (people, materials, goods, inventory and equipment) from the point of origin to the point of destination) costs indicates they dropped a little over the past decade (a period of ten years). Ongoing infrastructure (the basic physical or organisational structure or framework that a country or organization needs in order to function properly. For a whole nation, it includes all the physical systems such as buildings, roads & railways networks, utilities, etc) spends (expenditure, costs, outgoings, expenses) may gradually lower them further, but reducing petroleum prices for users, in tandem (alongside each other) with global trends, would boost competitiveness far more (much more) effectively.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.merchandise (noun)

Hindi Meaning - माल
English Meaning - goods, commodities, produce, product.

2.trade deficit (noun)

Hindi Meaning - व्यापार घाटा
English Meaning - a trade deficit (a deficit in the balance of trade) occurs when the value of a country’s imports exceeds that of its exports. It is also called a trade gap.

3.sequentially (adverb)

Hindi Meaning - क्रमानुसार
English Meaning - in succession, successively, continuously.

4.import bill (noun)

Hindi Meaning - आयात बिल
English Meaning - the total amount of imports made by a country. This includes both physical imports of goods and imports of services.

5.tally (noun)

Hindi Meaning - गणना
English Meaning - total, count.

6.year-on-year (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - साल-दर-साल
English Meaning - year over year (for comparison).

7.noise (noun)

Hindi Meaning - शोर
English Meaning - meaningless information; data with a large amount of additional meaningless information is called noise.

8.attribute (verb)

Hindi Meaning - गुण, भाव
English Meaning - ascribe, assign, connect/associate with.

9.discretionary (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - विवेकाधीन
English Meaning - optional, voluntary, subjective, up to the individual, non-mandatory, non-compulsory.

10.hazardous (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - खतरनाक
English Meaning - risky, perilous, dangerous, precarious, unsafe; uncertain, unpredictable, speculative.

11.certainty (noun)

Hindi Meaning - सापेक्ष निश्चितता
English Meaning - confidence, assurance, sureness, reliability.

12.magnitude (noun)

Hindi Meaning - परिमाण
English Meaning - size, percentage, ratio, proportion, scale.

13.quarter (noun)

Hindi Meaning - तिमाही
English Meaning - a period of three months (considered as one fourth of a year).

14.flag (verb)

Hindi Meaning - झंडा
English Meaning - indicate, point out, identify; draw attention to something

15.the obvious (noun)

Hindi Meaning - स्पष्ट
English Meaning - the clear, apparent thing; something that is evident/visible/undeniable.

16.cloudy (adjective)

English Meaning - indefinite, uncertain, unclear.

17.horizon (noun)

English Meaning - outlook, perspective, ambit, perception, purview.

18.underscore (verb)

English Meaning - underline, emphasise, highlight, stress, call/draw attention to.

19.criticality (noun)

English Meaning - crucial importance/significance.

20.upward (adjective)

English Meaning - rising, ascending, mounting.

21.swing (noun)

English Meaning - change, drift, tendency, turnaround.

22.retreat (verb)

English Meaning - move back, withdraw, pull back, recoil, recede, retract.

23.contraction (noun)

English Meaning - In economics, it refers to a decline in national output as measured by gross domestic product; economic decline (recession).

24.dip (verb)

English Meaning - decrease, drop, decline, reduce, diminish, plummet, lessen.

25.drop (verb)

English Meaning - decrease, decline, lessen, fall, slump, plummet, sink, slip, go down.

26.cool (verb)

English Meaning - reduce, lessen, diminish, decrease.

27.on the other hand (phrase)

English Meaning - as an alternative, or, as another option, as a substitute.

28.contract (verb)

English Meaning - decline, decrease, diminish, reduce.

29.denote (verb)

English Meaning - indicate, signify, represent.

30.uptick (noun)

English Meaning - a small increase or upward trend.

31.listen through (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - to notice something in its entirety.

32.dip (noun)

English Meaning - decrease, drop, decline, reduction, lessening.

33.deficit (noun)

English Meaning - shortfall, deficiency, shortage, undersupply, slippage.

34.range-bound (market) (adjective)

English Meaning - when a market, or the value of a particular stock, bond, commodity or currency, moves within a relatively tight range for a certain period of time.

35.recall (verb)

English Meaning - remember, recollect, think of something from the past.

36.hit (verb)

English Meaning - reach, attain, touch, arrive at (a particular level).

37.ease (verb)

English Meaning - lessen, reduce, decrease.

38.resurge (verb)

English Meaning - rise again.

39.make sense (phrase)

English Meaning - be accepted, be convincing, hold up, prove true.

40.divergence (noun)

English Meaning - difference, variance, mismatch, deviation, departure, abnormality, irregularity.

41.yo-yo (verb)

English Meaning - alternate, vary, oscillate.

42.yo-yo effect (noun)

English Meaning - the cyclic loss and gain of something.

43.of sorts (phrase)

English Meaning - of a sort, to some degree or extent; used when something is not a good or typical example of its kind of thing; of an inferior kind.

44.exacerbate (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - increase, escalate, add to, intensify, heighten, aggravate, make worse.

45.relative (adjective)

English Meaning - reasonable, considerable, some, moderate, comparative.

46.relative certainty (noun)

English Meaning - objective probability.

47.moderate (verb)

English Meaning - reduce, ease, lessen, decrease.

48.QuantEco research (noun)

English Meaning - it is an independent economics research firm offering nuanced insights on Indian economy covering macros and financial markets. As a leading research house, they specialize in delivering business economics and financial markets intelligence to corporates and investors.

49.get a grip (phrase)

English Meaning - to take control of a situation so that you can deal with it successfully.

50.official (noun)

English Meaning - officer, bureaucrat, office-holder, functionary, mandarin.

51.cite (verb)

English Meaning - mention, refer to, point to, adduce, invoke, turn to, resort to.

52.World Trade Organization (WTO) (noun)

English Meaning - an intergovernmental organization that is concerned with the regulation of international trade between nations.

53.global trade flow (noun)

English Meaning - flow of imports and exports between countries.

54.strengthen (verb)

English Meaning - fortify, reinforce, bolster.

55.Federal Reserve (US) (noun)

English Meaning - the central banking system of the United States (The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is India’s central banking institution).

56.rate cut (noun)

English Meaning - a decision by a central bank (like RBI in India) to reduce its main interest rate to the banks (like SBI, ICICI & etc. in India) when these commercial banks get money from the central bank. Once this rate goes down, the banks are in a position to give loans at lower interest rates to individuals and the industry.

57.central bank (noun)

English Meaning - the banking regulator of a county’s banking system. (e.g. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the central bank of India).

58.take one’s cue from (phrase)

English Meaning - follow the advice of someone, be highly influenced by someone; follow, imitate, copy, mimic.

59.global demand (noun)

English Meaning - the total demand for final goods and services in all parts of the world.

60.perhaps (adverb)

English Meaning - maybe, possibly, probably, conceivably, it is possible (that).

61.look up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - improve, get better, pick up, progress.

62.for instance (phrase)

English Meaning - as an example.

63.government-commissioned (adjective)

English Meaning - employed/appointed by the government.

64.commission (verb)

English Meaning - employ, appoint, recruit, authorize, engage.

65.logistics (noun)

English Meaning - the process of coordinating and moving/transporting resources (people, materials, goods, inventory and equipment) from the point of origin to the point of destination.

66.decade (noun)

English Meaning - a period of ten years.

67.infrastructure (noun)

English Meaning - the basic physical or organisational structure or framework that a country or organization needs in order to function properly. For a whole nation, it includes all the physical systems such as buildings, roads & railways networks, utilities, etc.

68.spends (noun)

English Meaning - expenditure, costs, outgoings, expenses.

69.in tandem (phrase)

English Meaning - alongside each other.

70.far more (phrase)

English Meaning - much more.