Hindi English Translation || Editorial || A wake-up call: On the growth forecast

A wake-up call: On the growth forecast

Policymakers must not make light of underwhelming (असंतोषजनक, नीरस) growth numbers

Even the most pessimistic (निराशावादी) economic forecasters (भविष्यवाणी, पूर्वानुमान) did not anticipate (पूर्वानुमान लगाना उम्मीद करना) the sharp downturn (गिरावट, मंदी) in economic momentum (गति) reflected (प्रतिबिंबित करना, दर्शाना) in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (सकल घरेलू उत्पाद) estimates for the July-September quarter (तिमाही). From a five-quarter low of 6.7% in the first quarter (Q1), most independent economists expected GDP growth of 6.5% in Q2, citing slackening urban demand indicators (संकेतक) such as moderating (कम करना, नियंत्रित करना) GST revenue growth, and weak consumer durables (टिकाऊ उपभोक्ता वस्तुएँ)’ and non-durables’ sales. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) (मौद्रिक नीति समिति) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its October review, pegged Q2 growth at 7%, while RBI officials projected (अनुमान लगाना) a 6.8% uptick (a small increase or upward trend) in an article soon after. That the actual number came in at just 5.4% — the slowest since the third quarter of 2022-23 — with the Gross Value-Added (GVA) (it is a measure of total output and income in the economy. It provides the rupee value for the amount of goods and services produced in an economy after deducting the cost of inputs and raw materials that have gone into the production of those goods and services. It also gives a sector-specific picture like what is the growth in an area, industry, or sector of an economy. On the other hand, GDP or gross domestic product is a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and services) in the economy rising at a marginally (slightly, somewhat, to some degree) better 5.6%, is, therefore, a significant shock. From a robust (strong, powerful) 8.2% GDP uptick last year, expectations of another year of 7%-plus growth in 2024-25 now appear precariously (insecurely, unsafely, dangerously, uncertainly) poised (get into position, be ready/prepared to do something) if not overtly (clearly, apparently, obviously, visibly, flagrantly, conspicuously, noticeably) optimistic (reassuring, favourable, encouraging, promising, hopeful), with the first half clocking (register, record; attain, achieve) just 6% growth.

The RBI’s MPC, which meets again this week, would certainly have to reorient (change the focus/direction of something) its 7.2% growth forecast for the year, and may find it tougher to keep its focus on reining in (to control, restrain, restrict, limit someone/something) inflation (simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value) amid recent calls (appeal, plea, request, demand) from Ministers to cut interest rates to support flailing (floundering, struggling, stumbling, blundering) growth impulses (an economic idea that involves lowering (excise) duties on consumer goods to encourage growth) and investments. With inflation at a 15-month high of 6.2% in October, the RBI, which is committed to wait for a durable (substantial, strong, lasting, continuing, persistent, stable, secure) decline in price rise before switching gears on rates, is unlikely (not likely, doubtful, improbable, questionable, debatable) to accede (accept to, agree to, consent to, go along with, endorse) to these calls just yet. It may, at best (only, simply, but, nothing but), unveil (present, make public, introduce, launch, release; reveal, disclose) measures (course of action, proceeding, procedure, step) to ease (decrease, lessen, diminish, reduce, lower) tight liquidity (the availability of liquid assets; liquidity means liquid assets; cash; (liquid asset is an asset which can be easily sold/converted into cash without losing its value); a measure of activity (i.e. the ability to buy or sell easily) in a market) conditions. Mint Street (Reserve Bank of India is often known as Mint Street) czars (magnate, mogul, tycoon) have a tough tightrope walk ahead in the face of (despite, notwithstanding, regardless of; when confronted with) the growth slump (decrease, decline, reduction, fall, drop, dip). North Block officials (officer, functionary, office-holder; authority, public/government servant, office-bearer, civil servant, mandarin) have, however, sought to downplay (de-emphasize, play down, understate, underplay, underemphasize, make light of) the recent streak (period, time, season, spell) of weaker economic indicators, and termed the Q2 growth print a ‘one-off (distinctive, individual, eccentric, isolated. (“one-off incident” means an incident that happens only once))’ number due to an urban demand slack (lull, pause, respite, interval, break; decrease, reduction, lessening) that should dissipate (disappear, vanish, disintegrate, dissolve, scatter) in the months ahead. While rural demand is expected to perk up (gain energy; cheer up, recover, rally, revive, encourage) the economy in the second half of the year, along with a relative (comparative, respective, comparable, corresponding) ramp-up in public capex (government capital expenditure) that has suffered so far (until now, up to the present, up to this point) this year — thanks to (as a result of, owing to, due to, because of) a Q1 pause (slack, lull, respite, interval, break) due to the general election and tepid (unconcerned, unenthusiastic, uninterested, lukewarm) Q2 spends amid an extended monsoon — it may be too complacent (careless, casual, unconcerned, indifferent, slack, lax, apathetic, uninterested; self-satisfied, smug, pleased with oneself, proud of oneself, self-approving, self-admiring, self-regarding) to assume that urban consumption will rebound (recover, revive, rally, pick up, come back (in value of something after decline)) on its own and interest rates are the only constraint (restriction, limitation, restraint) for growth. Poor wage increases and persistent (continuous, constant, unending, unrelenting, unceasing) price rise have caught up on urban wallets, and cannot be wished away. The Centre must shed (discard, let go, throw out, do away with, get rid of, abandon, dump, cast aside, jettison) its ‘all is well’ approach, and ring in (introduce, launch, announce, usher in, indicate, signal) fiscal (financial) measures, including cuts on fuel taxes and high GST rates on some items, to ease living costs and revive (bring back, reintroduce, re-establish, restore) demand.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.wake-up call (noun)

Hindi Meaning - चेतावनी, सचेत करने वाली बात
English Meaning - something which alerts a person to a problem and makes him/her to do some remedial action.

2.forecast (noun)

Hindi Meaning - भविष्यवाणी, पूर्वानुमान
English Meaning - prediction, indication, projection, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).

3.underwhelming (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - असंतोषजनक, नीरस
English Meaning - unsatisfactory, not exciting, disappointing.

4.pessimistic (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - निराशावादी
English Meaning - negative, doubting, sceptical, distrustful, suspicious, cynical.

5.anticipate (verb)

Hindi Meaning - पूर्वानुमान लगाना उम्मीद करना
English Meaning - expect, predict, foresee, forecast, foretell.

6.downturn (noun)

Hindi Meaning - गिरावट, मंदी
English Meaning - economic decline, slowdown, recession, depression, slump.

7.momentum (noun)

Hindi Meaning - गति
English Meaning - the increase in the rate of growth of something; strength, impetus.

8.reflect (verb)

Hindi Meaning - प्रतिबिंबित करना, दर्शाना
English Meaning - indicate, show, display, demonstrate, reveal, exhibit.

9.Gross domestic product (GDP) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - सकल घरेलू उत्पाद
English Meaning - a measure of economic activity in a country. the total value of all final goods and services produced within the country in one financial year.

10.quarter (noun)

Hindi Meaning - तिमाही
English Meaning - a period of three months (considered as one-fourth of a year).

11.indicator (noun)

Hindi Meaning - संकेतक
English Meaning - index (an (economic) data figure reflecting something (e.g. price/quantity) compared with a standard or base value).

12.moderate (verb)

Hindi Meaning - कम करना, नियंत्रित करना
English Meaning - reduce, ease, lessen, decrease.

13.consumer durables (noun)

Hindi Meaning - टिकाऊ उपभोक्ता वस्तुएँ
English Meaning - manufactured products/goods (such as TV, fridge, AC, motorbike, car & etc.) which last for an extended period of time.

14.The monetary policy committee (MPC) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मौद्रिक नीति समिति
English Meaning - it is a six-member panel that is expected to bring “value and transparency” to rate-setting decisions. It will feature three members from the RBI — the Governor, a Deputy Governor and another official — and three independent members to be selected by the Government. The MPC will meet four times a year to decide on monetary policy by a majority vote.

15.project (verb)

Hindi Meaning - अनुमान लगाना
English Meaning - predict, indicate, forecast, prognose, speculate, calculate (future events or trends).

16.make light of (phrase)

English Meaning - understate, underemphasize, downplay, deemphasize, play down, underrate, trivialize, brush aside, gloss over.

17.cite (verb)

English Meaning - invoke, mention, refer to, point to, adduce, turn to, resort to.

18.slackening (adjective)

English Meaning - decreasing, reducing, diminishing, lessening.

19.moderating (adjective)

English Meaning - slackening, decreasing, easing, reducing, diminishing, lessening.

20.consumer non-durables (noun)

English Meaning - products/goods (such as food, clothing, fuel, etc.) which are produced for immediate use and frequently replaced by the consumer.

21.monetary policy (noun)

English Meaning - monetary policy refers to the use of monetary instruments under the control of the central bank to regulate magnitudes such as interest rates, money supply, and availability of credit with a view to achieving the ultimate objective of economic policy mentioned in the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.

22.peg at (verb)

English Meaning - fix, set, hold, limit (a price, rate, or amount) at a particular level.

23.uptick (noun)

English Meaning - a small increase or upward trend.

24.gross value added (GVA) (noun)

English Meaning - it is a measure of total output and income in the economy. It provides the rupee value for the amount of goods and services produced in an economy after deducting the cost of inputs and raw materials that have gone into the production of those goods and services. It also gives a sector-specific picture like what is the growth in an area, industry, or sector of an economy. On the other hand, GDP or gross domestic product is a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and services.

25.marginally (adverb)

English Meaning - slightly, somewhat, to some degree.

26.robust (adjective)

English Meaning - strong, powerful.

27.precariously (adverb)

English Meaning - insecurely, unsafely, dangerously, uncertainly.

28.poise (verb)

English Meaning - get into position, be ready/prepared to do something.

29.overtly (adverb)

English Meaning - clearly, apparently, obviously, visibly, flagrantly, conspicuously, noticeably.

30.optimistic (adjective)

English Meaning - reassuring, favourable, encouraging, promising, hopeful.

31.clock (verb)

English Meaning - register, record; attain, achieve.

32.reorient (verb)

English Meaning - change the focus/direction of something.

33.rein in (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - to control, restrain, restrict, limit someone/something.

34.inflation (noun)

English Meaning - simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value.

35.amid (preposition)

English Meaning - in the middle of, surrounded by; during.

36.call (noun)

English Meaning - appeal, plea, request, demand.

37.flailing (adjective)

English Meaning - floundering, struggling, stumbling, blundering.

38.growth impulse (noun)

English Meaning - an economic idea that involves lowering (excise) duties on consumer goods to encourage growth.

39.durable (adjective)

English Meaning - substantial, strong, lasting, continuing, persistent, stable, secure.

40.switch gears (phrase)

English Meaning - to move on to something else.

41.unlikely (adjective)

English Meaning - not likely, doubtful, improbable, questionable, debatable.

42.accede (verb)

English Meaning - accept to, agree to, consent to, go along with, endorse,

43.at best (phrase)

English Meaning - only, simply, but, nothing but.

44.unveil (verb)

English Meaning - present, make public, introduce, launch, release; reveal, disclose.

45.measure (noun)

English Meaning - course of action, proceeding, procedure, step.

46.ease (verb)

English Meaning - decrease, lessen, diminish, reduce, lower.

47.liquidity (noun)

English Meaning - the availability of liquid assets; liquidity means liquid assets; cash; (liquid asset is an asset which can be easily sold/converted into cash without losing its value); a measure of activity (i.e. the ability to buy or sell easily) in a market.

48.Mint Street (noun)

English Meaning - Reserve Bank of India is often known as Mint Street.

49.czar (noun)

English Meaning - magnate, mogul, tycoon.

50.walk a tightrope (phrase)

English Meaning - to deal with a difficult situation in which a very small error could have very bad outcomes.

51.in the face of (phrase)

English Meaning - despite, notwithstanding, regardless of; when confronted with.

52.slump (noun)

English Meaning - decrease, decline, reduction, fall, drop, dip.

53.South & North Block (noun)

English Meaning - South Block is a metonym of the Prime Minister’s Office. North Block is a metonym of the Ministry of Finance, India. (The Secretariat Building (consists North & South Block) or Central Secretariat is where the Cabinet Secretariat is housed, which administers the Government of India. The South Block houses the Prime Minister’s Office, Ministry of Defence, and the Ministry of External Affairs). The North Block primarily houses the Ministry of Finance and the Home Ministry). (Metonym is used as an alternative for something else with which it is closely related/associated).

54.official (noun)

English Meaning - officer, functionary, office-holder; authority, public/government servant, office-bearer, civil servant, mandarin.

55.sought past tense of seek (verb)

English Meaning - try, aim, attempt.

56.downplay (verb)

English Meaning - de-emphasize, play down, understate, underplay, underemphasize, make light of.

57.streak (noun)

English Meaning - period, time, season, spell.

58.one-off (adjective)

English Meaning - distinctive, individual, eccentric, isolated. (“one-off incident” means an incident that happens only once).

59.slack (noun)

English Meaning - lull, pause, respite, interval, break; decrease, reduction, lessening.

60.dissipate (verb)

English Meaning - disappear, vanish, disintegrate, dissolve, scatter.

61.perk up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - gain energy; cheer up, recover, rally, revive, encourage .

62.relative (adjective)

English Meaning - comparative, respective, comparable, corresponding.

63.ramp up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - increase (in amount or number).

64.capital spending/capital expenditure (CAPEX) (noun)

English Meaning - the money spent on the acquisition of assets like land, buildings, machinery, equipment, as well as investment in shares.

65.public capex (noun)

English Meaning - government capital expenditure.

66.so far (phrase)

English Meaning - until now, up to the present, up to this point.

67.thanks to (phrase)

English Meaning - as a result of, owing to, due to, because of.

68.pause (noun)

English Meaning - slack, lull, respite, interval, break.

69.tepid (adjective)

English Meaning - unconcerned, unenthusiastic, uninterested, lukewarm.

70.complacent (adjective)

English Meaning - careless, casual, unconcerned, indifferent, slack, lax, apathetic, uninterested; self-satisfied, smug, pleased with oneself, proud of oneself, self-approving, self-admiring, self-regarding.

71.rebound (verb)

English Meaning - recover, revive, rally, pick up, come back (in value of something after decline).

72.on one’s own (phrase)

English Meaning - alone, all alone, all by oneself.

73.constraint (noun)

English Meaning - restriction, limitation, restraint.

74.persistent (adjective)

English Meaning - continuous, constant, unending, unrelenting, unceasing.

75.catch up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - reach, get to, gain on, come to.

76.wish away (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - to desire or hope that a problematic issue or situation will disappear without (you) doing anything about it.