Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Facts and statistics: On the national income data released by the National Statistical Office

Facts and statistics: On the national income data released by the National Statistical Office

GDP numbers bring cheer in election year, and merit (योग्यता) more scrutiny (जांच)

The latest national income data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) (राष्ट्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय) last week have generated a fair (reasonable, satisfactory, acceptable, adequate, sufficient) amount of excitement as well as bewilderment (घबराहट, हैरानी). While the markets have cheered the NSO’s estimate of a robust (मजबूत) 8.4% year-on-year (साल-दर-साल) growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) (सकल घरेलू उत्पाद) in the October-December quarter (तिमाही), some economists have been hard pressed to reconcile (settle, solve, resolve, rectify, deal with) the sharp differences (अंतर, भिन्नता) of well over a 100 basis points between the official estimates and their projections (अनुमान) that many of them had made. The release also posits (put forward, propose, postulate, suppose, suggest) that real GDP grew by 8.2% and 8.1%, respectively, in the first and second quarters of the current fiscal (राजकोषीय), 40 and 50 basis points (a unit of measure used in finance to describe the percentage change in the value or rate of a financial instrument. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01% (1/100th of a percent). Used for measuring change in interest rate/yield) quicker than it had estimated earlier. Full-year real GDP growth too is now forecast (predict, indicate, project, prognosis, speculate, calculate (future events or trends)) at 7.6%, 30 basis points faster than the 7.3% growth it had estimated as recently as in January. A factor behind the upgrades (rise, advancement, improvement, enhancement, elevation) in the current fiscal’s income estimates is the NSO’s revisions to the estimates for 2021-22 and 2022-23. While the revisions to 2021-22 data have resulted in that year’s real GDP growth being raised by 60 basis points to 9.7%, a fallout (adverse results/consequence; after-effects, repercussions) is the consequent (फलस्वरूप) scaling down (कम करना) of 2022-23’s GDP expansion (विस्तार, वृद्धि) to 7%, from the earlier estimate of 7.2%. Given (considering, taking into account, bearing in mind) that revisions to a previous year’s data automatically alter the year-on-year pace (rate, speed) of growth, the base effect (it relates to inflation in the corresponding period of the previous year, if the inflation rate was too low in the corresponding period of the previous year, even a smaller rise in the Price Index will arithmetically give a high rate of inflation now) is a crucial element that has to be factored in while gauging (measure, calculate, determine) the import (meaning, essence; importance, significance) of the headline number.

In real productive sectors of the economy, third-quarter gross value added (GVA) (it is a measure of total output and income in the economy. It provides the rupee value for the amount of goods and services produced in an economy after deducting the cost of inputs and raw materials that have gone into the production of those goods and services. It also gives a sector-specific picture like what is the growth in an area, industry, or sector of an economy. On the other hand, GDP or gross domestic product is a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and services) growth slowed to 6.5%, from an upwardly revised 7.7% pace in the preceding (previous, prior, earlier) July-September period, as output in the key (vital, important, essential, crucial) rural agriculture, livestock (farm animals (cattle, goats & etc.)), forestry (the management and use of natural resources occurring in forested land; forest management, forest planting, tree growing/forestation, afforestation) and fishing sector contracted 0.8% year-on-year and growth momentum (the increase in the rate of growth of something; strength, impetus) slowed sequentially (in succession, successively, continuously) across five of the other seven sectors that contribute to the GVA. That the GVA growth rate is a full 190 basis points slower than the GDP’s 8.4% pace is primarily because net indirect taxes are estimated to have surged (increase or rise suddenly) 32% year-on-year in the last quarter, largely (mostly, mainly, generally) as a result of (परिणाम होना) subsidy (also called as subvention; a financial contribution granted to help an industry or business, mostly given by a government, in order to keep the price of service/goods at a low level) payouts (payment), including on fertilizers (Fertilizers are organic or inorganic substances containing chemical elements that improve the growth of plants and the fertility (productiveness) of the soil), being drastically (extremely, substantially) lower. To that extent (to a particular degree/stage/level), the GVA growth rate presents a truer picture (impression, view, vision, notion) of the health of the economy. And even on the demand or expenditure side, the data on private consumption spending and government consumption expenditure in the third quarter reveal a lack of traction (a condition of gaining attention, momentum, or success). While private spending grew by a mere 3.5% year-on-year, government consumption spending actually shrank 3.2%. With the general election set (make ready, prepare, arrange) to be announced any day now, the headlines around the NSO data serve as (act as, function as) a poll-eve (the period just prior poll) talking point (a subject//topic of discussion). But there must be a sober (serious/sensible, serious-minded, factual, logical, well considered, straightforward, self-controlled, strict, restrained, unemotional) analysis of the real state of the economy that draws on (use, utilize, employ, rely on, make use of) multiple statistical sets.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.National Statistical Office (NSO) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - राष्ट्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय
English Meaning - The National Statistical Office is the state statistical agency set up by an Act of the Parliament, India, Statistical Services Act (Chapter 386) 1980, responsible for collecting, compiling and disseminating official statistical information on a regular and timely basis.

2.Gross domestic product (GDP) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - सकल घरेलू उत्पाद
English Meaning - a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and service.

3.merit (verb)

Hindi Meaning - योग्यता
English Meaning - deserve, warrant, be worthy of, justify.

4.scrutiny (noun)

Hindi Meaning - जांच
English Meaning - examination, inspection, investigation.

5.bewilderment (noun)

Hindi Meaning - घबराहट, हैरानी
English Meaning - bafflement, puzzlement, mystification, confusion, perplexity.

6.robust (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - मजबूत
English Meaning - strong, powerful.

7.year-on-year (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - साल-दर-साल
English Meaning - year over year (for comparison).

8.quarter (noun)

Hindi Meaning - तिमाही
English Meaning - a period of three months (considered as one-fourth of a year).

9.difference (noun)

Hindi Meaning - अंतर, भिन्नता
English Meaning - variation, deviation, divergence, dissimilarity, unevenness, contradiction.

10.projection (noun)

Hindi Meaning - अनुमान
English Meaning - prediction, indication, forecast, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).

11.fiscal (noun)

Hindi Meaning - राजकोषीय
English Meaning - financial year.

12.result in (verb)

Hindi Meaning - परिणाम होना
English Meaning - cause, lead to, bring about, bring on, give rise to.

13.consequent (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - फलस्वरूप
English Meaning - subsequent, resulting, resultant, following, successive, sequential, accompanying.

14.scaling down (noun)

Hindi Meaning - कम करना
English Meaning - reduction, decrease.

15.expansion (noun)

Hindi Meaning - विस्तार, वृद्धि
English Meaning - increase, rise; growth, development.

16.fair (adjective)

English Meaning - reasonable, satisfactory, acceptable, adequate, sufficient.

17.hard pressed (adjective)

English Meaning - in difficulties, under pressure, under stress, troubled, overburdened, overloaded.

18.reconcile (verb)

English Meaning - settle, solve, resolve, rectify, deal with.

19.basis point (BPS) (noun)

English Meaning - a unit of measure used in finance to describe the percentage change in the value or rate of a financial instrument. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01% (1/100th of a percent). Used for measuring change in interest rate/yield.

20.posit (verb)

English Meaning - put forward, propose, postulate, suppose, suggest.

21.forecast (verb)

English Meaning - predict, indicate, project, prognosis, speculate, calculate (future events or trends).

22.upgrade (noun)

English Meaning - rise, advancement, improvement, enhancement, elevation.

23.fallout (noun)

English Meaning - adverse results/consequence; after-effects, repercussions.

24.given (preposition)

English Meaning - considering, taking into account, bearing in mind.

25.pace (noun)

English Meaning - rate, speed.

26.base effect (noun)

English Meaning - it relates to inflation in the corresponding period of the previous year, if the inflation rate was too low in the corresponding period of the previous year, even a smaller rise in the Price Index will arithmetically give a high rate of inflation now.

27.factor in (verb)

English Meaning - consider, take into account, take into consideration.

28.gauge (verb)

English Meaning - measure, calculate, determine.

29.import (noun)

English Meaning - meaning, essence; importance, significance.

30.headline (adjective)

English Meaning - pronounced, marked, striking, glaring, obvious.

31.headline inflation (noun)

English Meaning - it is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, including commodities such as food and energy prices.

32.gross value added (GVA) (noun)

English Meaning - it is a measure of total output and income in the economy. It provides the rupee value for the amount of goods and services produced in an economy after deducting the cost of inputs and raw materials that have gone into the production of those goods and services. It also gives a sector-specific picture like what is the growth in an area, industry, or sector of an economy. On the other hand, GDP or gross domestic product is a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and services.

33.preceding (adjective)

English Meaning - previous, prior, earlier.

34.key (adjective)

English Meaning - vital, important, essential, crucial.

35.livestock (noun)

English Meaning - farm animals (cattle, goats & etc.).

36.forestry (noun)

English Meaning - the management and use of natural resources occurring in forested land; forest management, forest planting, tree growing/forestation, afforestation.

37.contract (verb)

English Meaning - decline, decrease, diminish, reduce.

38.momentum (noun)

English Meaning - the increase in the rate of growth of something; strength, impetus.

39.sequentially (adverb)

English Meaning - in succession, successively, continuously.

40.surge (verb)

English Meaning - increase or rise suddenly.

41.largely (adverb)

English Meaning - mostly, mainly, generally.

42.as a result of (phrase)

English Meaning - because of something; in view of, due to, owing to, by/in virtue of.

43.subsidy (noun)

English Meaning - also called as subvention; a financial contribution granted to help an industry or business, mostly given by a government, in order to keep the price of service/goods at a low level.

44.payout (noun)

English Meaning - payment.

45.fertilizer (noun)

English Meaning - Fertilizers are organic or inorganic substances containing chemical elements that improve the growth of plants and the fertility (productiveness) of the soil.

46.drastically (adverb)

English Meaning - extremely, substantially.

47.to that extent (phrase)

English Meaning - to a particular degree/stage/level.

48.picture (noun)

English Meaning - impression, view, vision, notion.

49.private consumption or consumption expenditure (noun)

English Meaning - the spending by households (consumers) on goods and services, excluding new housing.

50.public expenditure/spending or government expenditure/spending (noun)

English Meaning - money spent by the government (of a country on collective needs and wants, such as pension, provisions security, health care, infrastructure, etc.).

51.lack (noun)

English Meaning - absence, non-existence, unavailability.

52.traction (noun)

English Meaning - a condition of gaining attention, momentum, or success.

53.lack of traction (noun phrase)

English Meaning - used to describe that something doesn’t seem to be gaining any attention, momentum, or success.

54.shrank past of shrink (verb)

English Meaning - lessen, reduce, decrease.

55.set (verb)

English Meaning - make ready, prepare, arrange.

56.serve as (verb)

English Meaning - act as, function as.

57.poll-eve (noun as modifier)

English Meaning - the period just prior poll.

58.talking point (noun)

English Meaning - a subject//topic of discussion.

59.sober (adjective)

English Meaning - serious/sensible, serious-minded, factual, logical, well considered, straightforward, self-controlled, strict, restrained, unemotional.

60.draw on (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - use, utilize, employ, rely on, make use of.