Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Statistical succour: On the Consumer Price Index

Statistical succour: On the Consumer Price Index

Policymakers cannot afford to drop their guard on inflation

The reading (figure, indication, record, measurement) for retail inflation (मुद्रा स्फ़ीति) braked sharply last month to an 18-month low of 4.7%, aided in no small measure by the fact that price gains (मूल्य लाभ) had hit an eight-year high of 7.8% in April 2022. While at the headline level inflation cooled (lessen, moderate, abate, diminish, reduce, dampen) by 96 basis points (बुनियादी निर्देश, आधार बिंदु) from March’s 5.66%, the month-on-month (used to compare data for one month with that in previous months) price gains based on the provisional (अस्थायी, अल्पकालिक) Consumer Price Index (CPI) (उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकांक) in April showed a quickening (acceleration, increase, stepping up) to 0.51%, from the 0.23% pace in March. Inflation also slowed in April on the back of (due to, as a result of, because of) a year-on-year (year over year (for comparison)) softening (decrease, reduction, lessening, moderation) in food price gains with the Consumer Food Price Index (सूचकांक) easing almost lockstep with the broader index — the reading slid 95 basis points from the previous month’s 4.79%, to 3.84%. Oils and fats were a vital contributor, with a deflation (a decrease in the general price level of goods and services) in prices widening to 12.3% last month, from 7.86% in March. Also, inflation in cereals (अनाज), which has the highest weight of almost 10% in the CPI, slowed by 160 basis points to 13.7%, from 15.3% in the preceding (पिछला, पूर्व) month.

However, a closer look shows price gains accelerated (तेज़ करना, वृद्धि) sequentially (क्रमिक रूप से) in nine of the 12 subgroups of the food and beverages (a drink, such as tea, coffee, liquor, beer, milk, juice, or soft drinks, usually excluding water) category that contributes almost 46% weight in the CPI basket (टोकरी). While vegetable prices remained in deflationary (अपस्फीति संबंधी) territory (sphere, arena, domain) when compared with a year earlier, they registered 1.7% month-on-month inflation. And prices of fruits surged (increase suddenly) almost 4% from March’s levels, even as year-on-year the price gains were half that pace at 2.1%. Of concern (चिंता का विषय) is that prices of pulses and products as well as sugar and confectionery (sweets and chocolates (as a whole)) showed accelerations (increase, quickening, stepping up) in both year-on-year and month-on-month inflation rates. With the domestic output of pulses weaker in the current crop (a plant that can be grown and harvested extensively for profit or subsistence) year, the Centre has already moved to tighten its monitoring of tur and urad dal stocks held by traders, so as to (in order to) head off (prevent, avoid, stop, avert, fend off, stave off) any attempts to hoard and push up prices. It is also reportedly mulling (think over/about, consider, ponder, contemplate, deliberate) more export curbs (निंयत्रण रखना, संयम) on sugar amid (in the middle of, surrounded by; during) a production shortfall (deficit, inadequacy, deficiency). To be sure (certainly), besides the Centre’s supply side measures, last year’s base effect is bound (certain, very likely, guaranteed) to ensure that headline retail inflation is unlikely to go back above the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance (deviation, fluctuation, variation) threshold (it is an amount, level, or limit of something. Once the threshold is reached, something else happens or changes; lower limit, starting point, point of entry) of 6%, at least during the current quarter ( a period of three months (considered as one-fourth of a year)). Still, there is no room (scope, chance, leeway, freedom, latitude, opportunity (for something to happen)) for complacency (carelessness, laziness, laxity; self-satisfaction, smugness, self-regard). As Jayanth Varma, a member on the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee, flagged (indicate, identify, point out) last month, there still loom two major risks to the inflation outlook (expectations, prospects, future, lookout) — oil prices and uncertainty (unpredictability, unreliability, riskiness/precariousness) on the monsoon. The heightening (exacerbating, intensifying, increasing) prospect of an El Niño forebodes (indicate, predict, foretell, portend (something, a bad or misfortune situation) in advance) the possibility of erratic (inconsistent, irregular, random) or even significantly deficient (insufficient, meagre, inadequate) rainfall impacting foodgrains production, and policymakers can ill afford to drop their guard on inflation.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.succour (noun)

Hindi Meaning - सहायता, राहत
English Meaning - (financial) help, aid, assistance, relief.

2.Consumer Price Index (CPI) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकांक
English Meaning - The CPI looks at the basket of consumer goods and services and it measures the change in price of this basket over a period of time. To put it simply, the CPI monitors retail prices at a certain level for a particular commodity.

3.inflation (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मुद्रा स्फ़ीति
English Meaning - simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value.

4.price gain (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मूल्य लाभ
English Meaning - a general increase in the price of something.

5.basis point (BPS) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - बुनियादी निर्देश, आधार बिंदु
English Meaning - a unit of measure used in finance to describe the percentage change in the value or rate of a financial instrument. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01% (1/100th of a percent). Used for measuring change in interest rate/yield.

6.provisional (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - अस्थायी, अल्पकालिक
English Meaning - temporary, short-term, interim, transitional.

7.index (noun)

Hindi Meaning - सूचकांक
English Meaning - an (economic) data figure reflecting something (e.g. price/quantity) compared with a standard or base value; pointer, indicator.

8.cereal (noun)

Hindi Meaning - अनाज
English Meaning - a grain or plants that produce it (for example-wheat, maize, rice & etc.).

9.preceding (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - पिछला, पूर्व
English Meaning - previous, prior, earlier.

10.accelerate (verb)

Hindi Meaning - तेज़ करना, वृद्धि
English Meaning - increase, rise, quicken.

11.sequentially (adverb)

Hindi Meaning - क्रमिक रूप से
English Meaning - in succession, successively, continuously.

12.basket (noun)

Hindi Meaning - टोकरी
English Meaning - a group of something (taxes, investments, commodities, etc.).

13.deflationary (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - अपस्फीति संबंधी
English Meaning - characterized by or tending to cause economic deflation.

14.of concern (phrase)

Hindi Meaning - चिंता का विषय
English Meaning - If something is of concern, then it is worrying & unsatisfactory.

15.curb (verb)

Hindi Meaning - निंयत्रण रखना, संयम
English Meaning - restrain, control, limitation, restriction.

16.cannot afford/can ill afford (phrase)

English Meaning - if you cannot afford to do something, you must prevent it from happening because it would be embarrassing and cause problems (if it happens).

17.drop one’s guard (phrase)

English Meaning - to become less careful, to become less vigilant, to become less alert.

18.reading (noun)

English Meaning - figure, indication, record, measurement.

19.Retail or Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation (noun)

English Meaning - The change in the price index of the basket of consumer goods and services over a period of time is referred to as CPI-based inflation or retail inflation.

20.brake (verb)

English Meaning - slow down, reduce, lessen, decelerate, slow up.

21.in no small measure (phrase)

English Meaning - to a very great extent.

22.hit (verb)

English Meaning - reach, attain (a level/stage).

23.headline inflation (noun)

English Meaning - it is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, including commodities such as food and energy prices.

24.core inflation (noun)

English Meaning - it is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, excluding commodities such as food and energy prices (which change frequently).

25.cool (verb)

English Meaning - lessen, moderate, abate, diminish, reduce, dampen.

26.month-on-month (adjective)

English Meaning - used to compare data for one month with that in previous months.

27.quickening (noun)

English Meaning - acceleration, increase, stepping up.

28.on the back of (phrase)

English Meaning - due to, as a result of, because of.

29.year-on-year (adjective)

English Meaning - year over year (for comparison).

30.softening (noun)

English Meaning - decrease, reduction, lessening, moderation.

31.ease (verb)

English Meaning - lessen, reduce, moderate.

32.lockstep (noun)

English Meaning - in agreement with someone mindlessly and has exactly the same ideas/opinions that someone else has, often without questioning them in any way.

33.slid past participle of slide (verb)

English Meaning - fall, slip, drop, decrease, slump.

34.deflation (noun)

English Meaning - a decrease in the general price level of goods and services.

35.weight (noun)

English Meaning - larger number, bulk, lion’s share.

36.beverage (noun)

English Meaning - a drink, such as tea, coffee, liquor, beer, milk, juice, or soft drinks, usually excluding water.

37.territory (noun)

English Meaning - sphere, arena, domain.

38.surge (verb)

English Meaning - increase suddenly.

39.pulses (noun)

English Meaning - edible seeds (chickpeas, lentils, beans). (dals).

40.confectionery (noun)

English Meaning - sweets and chocolates (as a whole).

41.acceleration (noun)

English Meaning - increase, quickening, stepping up.

42.crop (noun)

English Meaning - a plant that can be grown and harvested extensively for profit or subsistence.

43.tighten (verb)

English Meaning - make stricter, make more rigorous, make more stringent, stiffen, toughen.

44.so as to (phrase)

English Meaning - in order to.

45.head off (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - prevent, avoid, stop, avert, fend off, stave off.

46.hoard (verb)

English Meaning - store up, stock up on, stockpile, put aside, set aside, amass, heap up, pile up, stack up.

47.push up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - increase, raise.

48.mull (verb)

English Meaning - think over/about, consider, ponder, contemplate, deliberate.

49.amid (preposition)

English Meaning - in the middle of, surrounded by; during.

50.shortfall (noun)

English Meaning - deficit, inadequacy, deficiency.

51.to be sure (phrase)

English Meaning - certainly.

52.besides (preposition)

English Meaning - apart from, other than, excluding, in addition to.

53.bound (adjective)

English Meaning - certain, very likely, guaranteed.

54.tolerance (noun)

English Meaning - deviation, fluctuation, variation.

55.threshold (noun)

English Meaning - it is an amount, level, or limit of something. Once the threshold is reached, something else happens or changes; lower limit, starting point, point of entry.

56.tolerance threshold (noun)

English Meaning - maximum allowable departure/deviation from a standard one.

57.quarter (noun)

English Meaning - a period of three months (considered as one-fourth of a year).

58.room (noun)

English Meaning - scope, chance, leeway, freedom, latitude, opportunity (for something to happen).

59.complacency (noun)

English Meaning - carelessness, laziness, laxity; self-satisfaction, smugness, self-regard.

60.The monetary policy committee (MPC) (noun)

English Meaning - it is a six-member panel that is expected to bring “value and transparency” to rate-setting decisions. It will feature three members from the RBI — the Governor, a Deputy Governor and another official — and three independent members to be selected by the Government. The MPC will meet four times a year to decide on monetary policy by a majority vote.

61.flag (verb)

English Meaning - indicate, identify, point out.

62.loom (verb)

English Meaning - be imminent, be impending, be close.

63.outlook (noun)

English Meaning - expectations, prospects, future, lookout.

64.uncertainty (noun)

English Meaning - unpredictability, unreliability, riskiness/precariousness.

65.heightening (adjective)

English Meaning - exacerbating, intensifying, increasing.

66.El Nino (noun)

English Meaning - an unusual/abnormal warming of the waters across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that lies closer to the Americas). La Niña means abnormal cooling.

67.forebode (verb)

English Meaning - indicate, predict, foretell, portend (something, a bad or misfortune situation) in advance.

68.erratic (adjective)

English Meaning - inconsistent, irregular, random.

69.deficient (adjective)

English Meaning - insufficient, meagre, inadequate.