Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Surprise spike: On the Consumer Price Index

Surprise spike: On the Consumer Price Index

October’s inflation pace surpasses expectations and dashes rate cut (ब्याज दर में कमी) hopes for now

India’s consumer prices have gained fresh momentum (तेजी, गति) over September and October, rendering (प्रदान करना, प्रस्तुत करना) the tangible softening (कमी, नरमी) in inflation (मुद्रास्फीति, महंगाई) to a pace (गति, रफ्तार) below the official median (औसत, माध्य) target of 4% in the two months preceding (पूर्ववर्ती, पहले का) them, a fleeting (क्षणिक, अल्पकालिक) reprieve (राहत, विराम). From 3.65% in August, retail price rise had hit (पहुंचना, प्राप्त करना) a nine-month high of 5.5% in September. To be clear, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in its October review, had termed the inflation moderation (reduction, contraction, lessening, decrease) as slow and uneven, and anticipated a reversal (turnaround, shift, change, retraction, U-turn) in September. A sharp surge (sudden increase or rise of something) in vegetable prices, particularly tomato, from the onset (start, beginning, arrival) of the festival-packed month of October, and an uptick (a small increase or upward trend) in edible oil (cooking oil; fat of plant, animal or microbial origin, which is liquid at room temperature and is suitable for food use) prices after nearly two years of decline, had stoked (influence, trigger, encourage, incite; fuel, add fuel to) anticipation that the inflation may end up (finish up, turn up, come/appear, find oneself (to a particular course of action in the end)) a tad (a small amount of something) higher than September. However, the Consumer Price Index (उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकांक) for October beat all economists’ projections (prediction, indication, forecast, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends)) by a wide margin, to rise 6.2%, the highest since August 2023 when it was up 6.8%.

Food prices remained the key bugbear (bane, anathema, curse, bogey, pet peeve, aversion, irritation) as they have been through most high inflation periods this year. However, the uptick was alarming (worrying, disturbing, shocking, distressing) at 10.9%, the highest since last July, with urban consumers facing a sharper 11.1% uptick. Within the food basket (a group of something (taxes, investments, commodities, etc.)), vegetable prices boomed (experience a rapid increase in growth) 42.2%, the highest surge in almost five years, led by tomato prices that more than doubled year-on-year (year over year (for comparison)). Global edible oil price spikes (तेजी से वृद्धि) also weighed in along with pricier (expensive, high-priced, costly, overpriced) fruits. The Finance Ministry, in its economic review late last month, had highlighted (emphasize, underscore, underline, accentuate, point up, call attention to, focus attention on) that the current bout (spell, period, time, session, run, cycle) of inflation is driven (cause to happen) by a few food items and is not feeding into other items of consumption. Core inflation (it is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, excluding commodities such as food and energy prices (which change frequently)) (excluding food and energy) has been well under the headline inflation (it is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, including commodities such as food and energy prices) rate and continued to be comfortable, and sufficient food grain buffers (protection, cushion, shielding, defence) with a healthy kharif harvest (production, produce, yield, year’s/season’s growth), it said, would alleviate (reduce, diminish, lessen, decrease; soothe, pacify, relieve, mitigate) price pressures. These assumptions may need a rethink (afterthought, reconsideration, reexamination, review). The Governor of the RBI, Shaktikanta Das, had noted that core inflation had bottomed out, and is beginning to show — personal care and effects’ prices were up 11% in October. Even if food prices cool (reduce, lessen, diminish, decrease) with fresh crop arrivals in coming months, other components of the price gauge (measure, indicator, index) are heating up. A durable (substantial, lasting, continuing, persistent, stable) decline in inflation that the MPC is waiting for to mull (consider, ponder, think about, reflect on, deliberate) interest rate cuts is now a poor prospect (chances, possibilities, expectations, outlook, future) while hopes of a December rate cut are out of the window ((of a plan or a particular way of thinking) disappear, discard, waste, disregard). That this coincides with a period of slackening (decreasing, reducing, diminishing, lessening) growth momentum and notably (in particular; especially) waning (decrease, decline, diminish/dwindle gradually) demand in urban India bodes ill for private investments. Policymakers at the Centre must acknowledge (accept, recognize, realize) the interlinked challenge of inflation and consumption, so that an attempt can be made to fix what they can with the fiscal (financial) tools at their disposal — be it tax cuts, or better food management.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.spike (noun)

Hindi Meaning - तेजी से वृद्धि
English Meaning - a sharp rise/increase of something.

2.consumer price index (CPI) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकांक
English Meaning - a monthly measurement of prices for most household goods and services.

3.Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - थोक मूल्य सूचकांक
English Meaning - The WPI looks at a basket of wholesale goods (goods purchased in large quantities by businesses directly from manufacturers with the intent of reselling them to retailers). the WPI tracks prices at the factory gate before the retail level.

4.index (noun)

Hindi Meaning - सूचकांक, संकेतक
English Meaning - an (economic) data figure reflecting something (e.g. price/quantity) compared with a standard or base value; pointer, indicator.

5.inflation (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मुद्रास्फीति, महंगाई
English Meaning - simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value.

6.pace (noun)

Hindi Meaning - गति, रफ्तार
English Meaning - rate, speed.

7.rate cut (noun)

Hindi Meaning - ब्याज दर में कमी
English Meaning - a decision by a central bank (like RBI in India) to reduce its main interest rate to the banks (like SBI, ICICI & etc in India) when these commercial banks get money from the central bank. Once this rate goes down, the banks are in a position to give loans at lower interest rates to individuals and the industry.

8.momentum (noun)

Hindi Meaning - तेजी, गति
English Meaning - the increase in the rate of growth of something; strength, impetus.

9.render (verb)

Hindi Meaning - प्रदान करना, प्रस्तुत करना
English Meaning - give, provide, display, show, represent, present.

10.softening (noun)

Hindi Meaning - कमी, नरमी
English Meaning - decrease, reduction, lessening, moderation.

11.median (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - औसत, माध्य
English Meaning - average, mean.

12.preceding (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - पूर्ववर्ती, पहले का
English Meaning - previous, prior, earlier.

13.fleeting (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - क्षणिक, अल्पकालिक
English Meaning - brief, transient, short-lived, short, momentary, sudden.

14.reprieve (noun)

Hindi Meaning - राहत, विराम
English Meaning - pause, interruption, break, suspension, respite, lull, breather, rest.

15.hit (verb)

Hindi Meaning - पहुंचना, प्राप्त करना
English Meaning - reach, attain, touch, arrive at (a particular level).

16.surpass (verb)

English Meaning - exceed, be greater than, be better than, outdo, overshadow.

17.expectation (noun)

English Meaning - prediction, indication, projection, prognosis, speculation, forecast, calculation (of future events or trends).

18.tangible (adjective)

English Meaning - noticeable, visible, recognizable, conspicuous.

19.dash (verb)

English Meaning - spoil, ruin, shatter, wipe out, destroy.

20.monetary policy (noun)

English Meaning - monetary policy refers to the use of monetary instruments under the control of the central bank to regulate magnitudes such as interest rates, money supply and availability of credit with a view to achieving the ultimate objective of economic policy.

21.The monetary policy committee (MPC) (noun)

English Meaning - it is a six-member panel that is expected to bring “value and transparency” to rate-setting decisions. It will feature three members from the RBI — the Governor, a Deputy Governor and another official — and three independent members to be selected by the Government. The MPC will meet four times a year to decide on monetary policy by a majority vote.

22.moderation (noun)

English Meaning - reduction, contraction, lessening, decrease.

23.reversal (noun)

English Meaning - turnaround, shift, change, retraction, U-turn.

24.surge (noun)

English Meaning - sudden increase or rise of something.

25.onset (noun)

English Meaning - start, beginning, arrival.

26.uptick (noun)

English Meaning - a small increase or upward trend.

27.edible oil (noun)

English Meaning - cooking oil; fat of plant, animal or microbial origin, which is liquid at room temperature and is suitable for food use.

28.stoke (verb)

English Meaning - influence, trigger, encourage, incite; fuel, add fuel to.

29.end up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - finish up, turn up, come/appear, find oneself (to a particular course of action in the end).

30.a tad (noun)

English Meaning - a small amount of something.

31.projection (noun)

English Meaning - prediction, indication, forecast, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).

32.bugbear (noun)

English Meaning - bane, anathema, curse, bogey, pet peeve, aversion, irritation.

33.alarming (adjective)

English Meaning - worrying, disturbing, shocking, distressing.

34.basket (noun)

English Meaning - a group of something (taxes, investments, commodities, etc.).

35.boom (verb)

English Meaning - experience a rapid increase in growth.

36.year-on-year (adjective)

English Meaning - year over year (for comparison).

37.weigh in (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - to have influence (in a decision/discussion/plan/argument/activity); be important to, carry weight, make an impression on, make a contribution to

38.pricier (adjective)

English Meaning - expensive, high-priced, costly, overpriced.

39.highlight (verb)

English Meaning - emphasize, underscore, underline, accentuate, point up, call attention to, focus attention on.

40.bout (noun)

English Meaning - spell, period, time, session, run, cycle.

41.drive (verb)

English Meaning - cause to happen.

42.feed into (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - to add to something; link with something; to have an influence on the development of something.

43.core inflation (noun)

English Meaning - it is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, excluding commodities such as food and energy prices (which change frequently).

44.headline inflation (noun)

English Meaning - it is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, including commodities such as food and energy prices.

45.buffer (noun)

English Meaning - protection, cushion, shielding, defence.

46.kharif sowing/crops (noun)

English Meaning - monsoon crops; seeds sowing in the beginning (Jun) of the monsoon and harvesting at the end of the season (Oct) in the South Asia.

47.rabi sowing/crops (noun)

English Meaning - winter crops; seeds sowing in the beginning (Nov) of the winter and harvesting at the end of the season (Apr) in the South Asia.

48.harvest (noun)

English Meaning - production, produce, yield, year’s/season’s growth.

49.alleviate (verb)

English Meaning - reduce, diminish, lessen, decrease; soothe, pacify, relieve, mitigate.

50.Inflationary/price pressures (noun)

English Meaning - the demand and supply-side pressures that can cause a rise in the general price level; cost-push inflation, hot-economy, deficit finance.

51.rethink (noun)

English Meaning - afterthought, reconsideration, reexamination, review.

52.bottom out (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - to reach a lowest or worst point (and from there the condition will only improve).

53.cool (verb)

English Meaning - reduce, lessen, diminish, decrease.

54.gauge (noun)

English Meaning - measure, indicator, index.

55.heat up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - to make something more intense/serious.

56.durable (adjective)

English Meaning - substantial, lasting, continuing, persistent, stable.