Hindi English Translation || Editorial || The growth math: On India’s growth prospects

The growth math: On India’s growth prospects

Resurging (पुनरुत्थान) oil prices, tight money may dent consumption, investment hopes

On Tuesday, two multilateral (बहुपक्षीय) institutions presented their regional economic outlook for this year, scaling down their projection (prediction, indication, forecast, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends)) for India’s growth prospects (संभावना, अपेक्षाएँ) in 2023-24. The World Bank (विश्व बैंक) has pared (reduce, diminish, decrease) its real GDP (सकल घरेलू उत्पाद) growth forecast for the country to 6.3% from 6.6% it had estimated a few months earlier, and 7% projected in October 2022. The key domestic factors it flagged (indicate, point out, identify; draw attention to something) for the downgrade (the reduction in status/rank/importance; demotion, degradation, relegation) are: rising borrowing costs would hurt otherwise resilient (लचीला) consumption demand (the demand for goods and services by individuals and households in the economy), government consumption (The government consumption consists of government spending on goods, services, and investment) will likely contract (अनुबंध, गिरावट), while services sectors’ growth will slip (slide, fall, drop, decrease, slump) to a three-year low of 6.7% from an estimated 9.5% in 2022-23. The Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB) (The Asian Development Bank (ADB) envisions a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty in the region. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members-49 from the region) noted that a rebounding (recovering, reviving, rallying) China’s and India’s domestic demand (which it believes will likely stay healthy) would lift up (increase, raise) Asia’s growth prospects. However, it slashed (reduce, lower, bring down) its 2023-24 GDP growth forecast for India from 7.2% to 6.4%, citing tight monetary conditions and fading optimism (आशावाद) on business conditions that it reckoned (मानना, पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी) would lead to (नेतृत्व करने के लिए, में परिणत होना) lower growth in private investments (that had only seen a fledgling (अनुभवहीन मनुष्य, उभरना) post-COVID recovery till now). Apart from these domestic issues, of course (बिल्कुल, निश्चित रूप से), both the institutions have cited (refer to, make reference to, mention, point to) the effects of the existing challenging conditions in the global economy, which are freshly exacerbated (intensify, heighten, increase; aggravate, worsen, make worse) by a spate (series, flurry; a large number of something (taking place at the same period)) of bank failures in the developed world and resurfacing (reappearing, reemerging, returning) concerns about oil prices heading north (fall, drop, reduce, decrease, decline, slide, slump (in value/quantity)) despite slowing world demand as producers cut output in unison (together, simultaneously/at the same time).

To be clear, the government, which presented the Union Budget around two months after the last forecasts of these institutions, of 7%-plus growth, had not articulated (communicate, express, voice, state, declare, pronounce, say, utter) such high hopes for this year. The Economic Survey (आर्थिक सर्वेक्षण) pegged 2023-24 growth at 6.5%, while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimates it at 6.4%. However, India’s current growth estimate for last year is 7%, while the World Bank and ADB expect it to be marginally (सीमांत रूप से, कुछ हद तक) lower at 6.9% and 6.8%, respectively. A better picture (notion, idea, view; impression) on the base over which this year’s growth has to be calculated, will only emerge by the end of May when first estimates for the last quarter (a period of three months (considered as one-fourth of a year)) of 2022-23 will be released. The world would also have spun a few more times by then (at a end of the specified time) and 2023-24 forecasts shall be revised whichever way the winds blow. At this time last April, the International Monetary Fund (an international organization of 189 countries, headquartered in Washington, D.C., working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world) had just scaled down its India growth estimate for the year gone by, from 9% to 8.2%, while the World Bank, the ADB and the RBI had projected it to be 8%, 7.5% and 7.2%, respectively. Policymakers can safely tune out (stop paying attention to something; neglect, omit, reject, disregard, ignore) the noise generated by these numbers, but must pay heed to (pay attention to, take notice of, watch, heed) the stress (trouble, difficulty, tension) signs being flagged so as to (in order to) pro-actively minimise any impending (nearing, upcoming, approaching, forthcoming) damage.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.prospects (noun)

Hindi Meaning - संभावना, अपेक्षाएँ
English Meaning - chances, possibilities, expectations, outlook, future.

2.resurging (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - पुनरुत्थान
English Meaning - rising again.

3.multilateral (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - बहुपक्षीय
English Meaning - involving many different countries.

4.World Bank (noun)

Hindi Meaning - विश्व बैंक
English Meaning - The World Bank is an international development organization owned by 187 countries. Its role is to reduce poverty by lending money to the governments of its poorer members to improve their economies and to improve the standard of living of their people. The World Bank was established in 1944 to help rebuild Europe and Japan after World War II. Its official name was the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).

5.Gross domestic product (GDP) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - सकल घरेलू उत्पाद
English Meaning - a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and service.

6.resilient (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - लचीला
English Meaning - able to recover quickly from difficulties/problems, quick to bounce back; adaptable, flexible; strong, buoyant, adaptable, durable.

7.contract (verb)

Hindi Meaning - अनुबंध, गिरावट
English Meaning - decline, decrease, diminish, reduce.

8.aspiration (noun)

Hindi Meaning - आकांक्षा, आशा
English Meaning - ambition, hope, goal.

9.optimism (noun)

Hindi Meaning - आशावाद
English Meaning - hopefulness, hope, confidence, positive attitude, buoyancy.

10.reckon (verb)

Hindi Meaning - मानना, पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी
English Meaning - forecast, predict, estimate, project, calculate.

11.lead to (verb)

Hindi Meaning - नेतृत्व करने के लिए, में परिणत होना
English Meaning - result in, cause, bring on, bring about, give rise to.

12.fledgling (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - अनुभवहीन मनुष्य, उभरना
English Meaning - emerging, beginning, developing, growing, rising, burgeoning; promising, potential, up-and-coming.

13.of course (phrase)

Hindi Meaning - बिल्कुल, निश्चित रूप से
English Meaning - certainly, obviously, to be sure, needless to say.

14.Economic Survey (noun)

Hindi Meaning - आर्थिक सर्वेक्षण
English Meaning - Economic Survey, presented in the Parliament ahead of the Union Budget, is the Ministry of Finance’s flagship document. The Economic Survey detailed information about the Indian economy over the past year. The Economic Survey also offers glimpses into the current state of the economy, and occasional insights into the economic outlook. Although the Constitution does not bind (impose a legal obligation on) the government to present the Economic Survey, over the years, it has become common practice for every government to present the Economic Survey before the Union Budget.

15.marginally (adverb)

Hindi Meaning - सीमांत रूप से, कुछ हद तक
English Meaning - slightly, somewhat, to some degree.

16.math (noun)

English Meaning - calculation; (estimation, projection).

17.tight money (noun)

English Meaning - the economic condition in which a restricted money supply makes credit difficult to secure/get/obtain. The opposite of tight money is easy money.

18.dent (verb)

English Meaning - reduce, diminish, lessen, shrink.

19.scale down (verb)

English Meaning - reduce, decrease, lessen, lower.

20.projection (noun)

English Meaning - prediction, indication, forecast, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).

21.pare (verb)

English Meaning - reduce, diminish, decrease.

22.flag (verb)

English Meaning - indicate, point out, identify; draw attention to something.

23.downgrade (noun)

English Meaning - the reduction in status/rank/importance; demotion, degradation, relegation.

24.consumption demand (noun)

English Meaning - the demand for goods and services by individuals and households in the economy.

25.government consumption (noun)

English Meaning - The government consumption consists of government spending on goods, services, and investment.

26.slip (verb)

English Meaning - slide, fall, drop, decrease, slump.

27.Asian Development Bank (ADB) (noun)

English Meaning - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) envisions a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty in the region. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members-49 from the region.

28.rebounding (adjective)

English Meaning - recovering, reviving, rallying.

29.rebound (verb)

English Meaning - recover, revive, rally, bounce back, pick up, come back (in value of something after decline).

30.lift up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - increase, raise.

31.slash (verb)

English Meaning - reduce, lower, bring down.

32.cite (verb)

English Meaning - refer to, make reference to, mention, point to.

33.exacerbate (verb)

English Meaning - intensify, heighten, increase; aggravate, worsen, make worse.

34.spate (noun)

English Meaning - series, flurry; a large number of something (taking place at the same period).

35.resurfacing (verb)

English Meaning - reappearing, reemerging, returning.

36.head north (phrase)

English Meaning - fall, drop, reduce, decrease, decline, slide, slump (in value/quantity).

37.in unison (phrase)

English Meaning - together, simultaneously/at the same time.

38.articulate (verb)

English Meaning - communicate, express, voice, state, declare, pronounce, say, utter.

39.Peg (at) (verb)

English Meaning - fix, set, hold, limit (a price, rate, or amount) at a particular level.

40.picture (noun)

English Meaning - notion, idea, view; impression.

41.quarter (noun)

English Meaning - a period of three months (considered as one-fourth of a year).

42.spun past & past participle of spin (verb)

English Meaning - revolve, rotate, turn around.

43.by then (phrase)

English Meaning - at a end of the specified time.

44.the way the winds blow (phrase)

English Meaning - wait for more information and others’ opinions & actions before making decision.

45.International Monetary Fund (IMF) (noun)

English Meaning - an international organization of 189 countries, headquartered in Washington, D.C., working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.

46.tune out (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - stop paying attention to something; neglect, omit, reject, disregard, ignore.

47.pay heed to (phrase)

English Meaning - pay attention to, take notice of, watch, heed.

48.stress (noun)

English Meaning - trouble, difficulty, tension,

49.so as to (phrase)

English Meaning - in order to.

50.impending (adjective)

English Meaning - nearing, upcoming, approaching, forthcoming.