The services story: On India’s success
India’s robust intangible exports growth faces risks that warrant a nuanced (अति सूक्ष्म अंतर) response
A deep-dive research report from global investment banking major Goldman Sachs, evocatively (भावपूर्ण ढंग से, संवादनात्मक रूप से) titled ‘India’s rise as the emerging services factory of the world’, has captured India’s recent success in providing global services and sought to forecast growth prospects and risks in the medium term. The take-off trajectory of the country’s IT services sector, unleashed (उन्मुक्त करना) after critical economic reforms in 1991, is well known. The firm takes a broader view of India’s services exports over the last 18 years, including professional consulting, that have grown the fastest, travel services which have grown the slowest, and financial services that could gain if initiatives such as the GIFT City click. While global services exports tripled over 18 years, such intangible (अमूर्त, अस्पृश्य) exports from India grew at twice the pace to reach nearly $340 billion last year. In fact, its exports growth has been the third fastest globally since 2005, behind Singapore and Ireland. The country’s share in global services outflows (बहिर्वाह, निकास) has risen from under 2% in 2005 to 4.6% in 2023. India’s share in goods exports increased from 1% to 1.8% during this period.
The services trade boom (उछाल, तेजी से वृद्धि) has also served as an invaluable (अमूल्य, अनमोल) cushion for India’s external account balances against shocks such as pricey oil imports. Goldman Sachs expects that buffer to remain in play with services exports projected to rise to $800 billion by 2030. While this is slightly lower than the government’s target of $1 trillion by 2030 for both services and merchandise exports, a continuing uptick in high-value services would also drive top-end discretionary (विवेकाधीन, स्वतंत्र निर्णय लेने का) consumption and real estate demand, the firm reckoned. In the immediate term, the outlook is tentative as top firms in IT services, still India’s most dominant export segment, have shed employees over the past year and their growth guidance for this year is far from bullish. Infosys, for instance, expects revenues to rise 1% to 3% this year in constant currency terms. The rise of global capability centres offers some comfort. However, the firm’s analysts stress it would be imprudent (अविवेकी, विवेकहीन) to take India’s services growth for granted. Constraints that need attention include training graduates to be job ready, and the stress on natural resources in regions where growth is concentrated, as reflected in the water crisis at Bengaluru. A protectionist tendency in destination countries could hurt exports, just as irrational domestic policy interventions such as attempts to “manage” IT hardware imports. India needs a calibrated (समायोजित करना, सही करना) approach to sustain the services success story. That should include a hard push for global market access and opportunities for all professional services, as well as a light-touch regulatory approach to let new ideas and enterprises bloom across areas such as artificial intelligence, manufacturing-linked services, and blockchain applications.
Courtesy: The Hindu
Important Word List With Meaning
1.Nuance (Noun)
Hindi Meaning - अति सूक्ष्म अंतर
English Meaning - A subtle difference in or shade of meaning, expression, or sound.
2.Intangible (Adjective)
Hindi Meaning - अमूर्त, अस्पृश्य
English Meaning - Unable to be touched or grasped; not having physical presence.
3.Evocatively (Adverb)
Hindi Meaning - भावपूर्ण ढंग से, संवादनात्मक रूप से
English Meaning - In a way that brings strong images, memories, or feelings to
4.Unleash (Verb)
Hindi Meaning - उन्मुक्त करना
English Meaning - Release (a dog) from a leash; cause (a strong or violent force) to be released or become unrestrained.
5.Outflow (Noun)
Hindi Meaning - बहिर्वाह, निकास
English Meaning - The process of flowing out; an outward flow or movement
6.Invaluable (Adjective)
Hindi Meaning - अमूल्य, अनमोल
English Meaning - Extremely useful; indispensable.
7.Boom (Noun)
Hindi Meaning - उछाल, तेजी से वृद्धि
English Meaning - A deep, resonant sound, such as that of an explosion.
8.Discretionary (Adjective)
Hindi Meaning - विवेकाधीन, स्वतंत्र निर्णय लेने का
English Meaning - Available for use at the discretion of the user; optional.
9.Imprudent (Adjective)
Hindi Meaning - अविवेकी, विवेकहीन
English Meaning - Not showing care for the consequences of an action; rash.
10.Calibrate (Verb)
Hindi Meaning - समायोजित करना, सही करना
English Meaning - To mark (a gauge or instrument) with a standard scale of readings.