Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Time for change: On IMD’s 2022 monsoon forecast

Time for change: On IMD’s 2022 monsoon forecast

The IMD must update some processes and stress (तनाव, जोर देना, आकर्षित करना) on shorter forecasts (पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी, संकेत, प्रक्षेपण)

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) (an agency under the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India which is responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology. It has the responsibility for forecasting, naming and distributing warnings for tropical cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean region, including the Malacca Straits, the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf) has forecast a ‘normal’ monsoon for this year, or 99% of the Long Period Average (LPA) (LPA is the average rainfall received by the country as a whole during the south-west monsoon, for a 50-year period. The current LPA is 88 cm, based on the mean (average) rainfall over the years 1951 and 2000) of 87 cm. The IMD has a multi-stage monsoon forecast system. The April forecast usually has little detail on how much rain is expected during each of the monsoon months, and whether the rain will be lopsided or evenly distributed geographically. The IMD usually shares this in late May or early June, just around the time (at the moment (approximately)) the monsoon is imminent (करीब, निकट, होने वाला) over Kerala. The forecast in April is thus (इस प्रकार, इसलिए, तदनुसार) only a general indicator and of little public utility (उपयोगिता, लाभ, मूल्य). A normal (आदर्श, मानक, नियम) monsoon forecast this year is also predicated on (भविष्यवाणी करना, आधार, आश्रित होना) the absence of an El Niño, a warming of the Central Pacific linked to the drying up (dwindle, wane, disappear, vanish, subside, fade away, come to nothing, come to a an end) of monsoon rains. However, another ocean parameter (criterion, factor, guideline) called the Indian Ocean Dipole (it is defined by the difference in the sea surface temperature between the two equatorial areas of the Indian Ocean - a western pole near the Arabian Sea (in the western Indian Ocean) and an eastern pole closer to the Bay of Bengal (in the eastern Indian Ocean). The IOD affects the climate of Southeast Asia, Australia and other countries across the Indian Ocean), the positive phase of which is associated with good rains, has also been forecast to be ‘neutral’ or unhelpful for the monsoon.

There has also been another significant bit of information made public. The IMD has changed its definition of the LPA, which is an indication of the average rainfall over a 50-year interval and, as per the norms of the World Meteorological Organization (विश्व मौसम विज्ञान संगठन) to which India is a signatory (हस्ताक्षरकर्ता), should be updated every 10 years. For myriad reasons, the IMD stuck with (continue with something) an LPA number of 89 cm (the average monsoon rain from 1951-2000) until 2018, when it was updated to 88 cm (to reflect (विचार करना, इंगित करें, दिखाएं) the average from 1961-2010). And now, to count for (के लिए गिनती) the 1971-2020 interval, the number is 87 cm. While on the surface (outward appearance; at first glance, to the casual eye, outwardly, apparently, ostensibly), it might look like India is losing just a centimetre of rainfall every decade (दशक, दस वर्ष की अवधि), it must be remembered that this conceals wide shifts (परिवर्तन, समायोजन, खिसक जाना) in rainfall when computed at the State and district levels as the monsoon rain is highly uneven. The IMD explains the loss of a centimetre every decade as part of a natural cycle of the monsoon where 30 years of less rain, or a ‘dry’ epoch (युग, काल), is followed by 30 years of a ‘wet epoch’. India began a dry epoch in the 1970-80 decade, the IMD says; it is now in a neutral phase and will enter a wet epoch in the decade, 2030-2040. The IMD has presented research over the years documenting the changes in the weather and rainfall in recent years down to sub-district levels, and has said that global warming (it is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels), in its tendency (inclination, disposition, leaning, penchant; trend) to heat the oceans, has certainly (unquestionably, surely, definitely, beyond question/doubt, unequivocally, undeniably, obviously) had a role to play. Much like the update to the average, the IMD must update some processes and lay stress on (emphasize, draw/focus attention on, highlight, underline, underscore) shorter forecasts, a month or a fortnight (a period of two weeks/fourteen days continuously) ahead, rather than (instead of) maintain anachronistic (outdated, out-of-date, old-fashioned, outmoded, old-time, ancient, archaic) traditions of long-range forecasts that are neither accurate nor useful.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.forecast (noun)

Hindi Meaning - पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी, संकेत, प्रक्षेपण
English Meaning - prediction, indication, projection, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).

2.stress (verb)

Hindi Meaning - तनाव, जोर देना, आकर्षित करना
English Meaning - emphasize, draw/focus attention on, highlight, underline, underscore.

3.imminent (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - करीब, निकट, होने वाला
English Meaning - close/near, about to happen, approaching/impending.

4.thus (adverb)

Hindi Meaning - इस प्रकार, इसलिए, तदनुसार
English Meaning - therefore, accordingly, hence, as a result, for that reason.

5.utility (noun)

Hindi Meaning - उपयोगिता, लाभ, मूल्य
English Meaning - usefulness, use, advantage, benefit, value, helpfulness, service.

6.predicate on/upon (phrasal verb)

Hindi Meaning - भविष्यवाणी करना, आधार, आश्रित होना
English Meaning - base, be dependent, establish, found, premise.

7.make public (phrase)

Hindi Meaning - सार्वजनिक करें, प्रकाशित करना, प्रचारित करना
English Meaning - publish, publicize, communicate, circulate, broadcast.

8.norm (noun)

Hindi Meaning - आदर्श, मानक, नियम
English Meaning - standard, rule, convention, regulation, guideline.

9.World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - विश्व मौसम विज्ञान संगठन
English Meaning - As a specialized agency of the United Nations, WMO is dedicated to international cooperation and coordination on the state and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere, its interaction with the land and oceans, the weather and climate it produces, and the resulting distribution of water resources. Headquarters location: Geneva, Switzerland.

10.signatory (noun)

Hindi Meaning - हस्ताक्षरकर्ता
English Meaning - the person who signed an official document/agreement.

11.reflect (verb)

Hindi Meaning - विचार करना, इंगित करें, दिखाएं
English Meaning - indicate, show, display, demonstrate, represent.

12.count for (phrase)

Hindi Meaning - के लिए गिनती
English Meaning - to be valid for something.

13.decade (noun)

Hindi Meaning - दशक, दस वर्ष की अवधि।
English Meaning - a period of ten years.

14.shift (noun)

Hindi Meaning - परिवर्तन, समायोजन, खिसक जाना
English Meaning - change, alteration, adjustment, variation, modification, revision.

15.epoch (noun)

Hindi Meaning - युग, काल
English Meaning - era, period, time.

16.India Meteorological Department (IMD) (noun)

English Meaning - an agency under the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India which is responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology. It has the responsibility for forecasting, naming and distributing warnings for tropical cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean region, including the Malacca Straits, the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf.

17.long period average (LPA) (noun)

English Meaning - LPA is the average rainfall received by the country as a whole during the south-west monsoon, for a 50-year period. The current LPA is 88 cm, based on the mean (average) rainfall over the years 1951 and 2000.

18.lopsided (adjective)

English Meaning - asymmetrical, uneven, unequal.

19.around the time (phrase)

English Meaning - at the moment (approximately).

20.El Nino (noun)

English Meaning - an unusual/abnormal warming of the waters across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that lies closer to the Americas). La Niña means abnormal cooling.

21.dry up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - dwindle, wane, disappear, vanish, subside, fade away, come to nothing, come to a an end.

22.parameter (noun)

English Meaning - criterion, factor, guideline.

23.Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (noun)

English Meaning - it is defined by the difference in the sea surface temperature between the two equatorial areas of the Indian Ocean - a western pole near the Arabian Sea (in the western Indian Ocean) and an eastern pole closer to the Bay of Bengal (in the eastern Indian Ocean). The IOD affects the climate of Southeast Asia, Australia and other countries across the Indian Ocean.

24.stuck with (phrase)

English Meaning - continue with something.

25.surface (noun)

English Meaning - outward appearance; at first glance, to the casual eye, outwardly, apparently, ostensibly.

26.global warming (noun)

English Meaning - it is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels.

27.tendency (noun)

English Meaning - inclination, disposition, leaning, penchant; trend.

28.certainly (adverb)

English Meaning - unquestionably, surely, definitely, beyond question/doubt, unequivocally, undeniably, obviously.

29.play a role (phrase)

English Meaning - contribute to, be instrumental in, be a factor in.

30.lay stress on (phrase)

English Meaning - emphasize, draw/focus attention on, highlight, underline, underscore.

31.fortnight (noun)

English Meaning - a period of two weeks/fourteen days continuously.

32.rather than (phrase)

English Meaning - instead of.