Trading up: On the World Bank’s India Development Update
The World Bank’s growth prognosis (पूर्वानुमान) for India moots (सुझाना, प्रस्ताव रखना) some policy shifts
In its latest India Development Update, the World Bank (विश्व बैंक) has raised its 2024-25 GDP (सकल घरेलू उत्पाद) growth forecast for the economy to 7%, from 6.6% estimated earlier this year. The projection is now in sync (in agreement) with predictions from the International Monetary Fund (अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष) and Asian Development Bank (एशियाई विकास बैंक), but a tad (a very small amount; a little bit; to small degree extent; slightly, somewhat) lower than the 7.2% uptick (थोड़ी वृद्धि) projected (पूर्वानुमान करना, भविष्यवाणी करना) by the RBI and Fitch Ratings (an American credit rating agency and is one of the “Big Three credit rating agencies”, the other two being Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s). Earlier growth hopes for India were slightly modest (मामूली, सीमित), partly due to (के कारण) its strong 8.2% growth last year, and prospects (संभावनाएँ, उम्मीदें) of the global economy staying weak due to restrictive (प्रतिबंधात्मक, सीमित करने वाला) monetary policies (मौद्रिक नीति) and persistent (लगातार, निरंतर) geopolitical (भू-राजनीतिक) tensions (strained relations, strain, unease). The World Bank estimates global growth to be the same as last year’s 2.6% pace, way (much) below pre-pandemic levels. Despite this subdued (restrained, controlled, toned down, muted) external environment (situation, condition, context, background, backdrop, atmosphere) and the dissipation (draining, depletion, losing, loss; squandering, waste) of post-COVID-19 rebound (rally, upturn, recovery, improvement, resurgence (after decline)) effects, the Bank’s economists now expect India’s growth to remain strong this year at 7%. However, external risks could cloud (mess up, spoil, ruin, vitiate) this, including pressures on supply chains (a dynamic network when a company purchases or uses goods or services from others. It involves people, information, processes, and resources involved in the production, handling, and distribution of materials and finished products or providing a service to the customer) and commodity prices, and a resurgence (recovery, revival, rebound, resurrection, renaissance, re-emergence) of inflation (simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value) that could compel central banks to hold (maintain, continue (without changing)) interest rates ‘higher for longer’.
The Bank expects private consumption to rise 5.7% and the farm sector to grow 4.1% this year, from last year’s anaemic (feeble, weak, poor, inadequate) trends. A recovery in farms could offset (even up, counterbalance, equalize, neutralize; make amends for, compensate for) a slight moderation (reduction, contraction, lessening, decrease) in industrial growth, and revive (recover, renew, re-establish, resuscitate, revitalize, regenerate, bring back) weak rural demand and help bolster (strengthen, support, make stronger, reinforce, buttress) private investment in the medium term, with GDP growth expected to hover (to remain at a level) in the 6.5%-6.7% range in coming years. On India’s imperative (necessary condition, precondition, condition, essential requirement) to generate non-farm jobs, the Bank acknowledged (accept, recognize, realize) ideas such as the Production Linked Incentive (incentives provided to companies for enhancing their domestic manufacturing apart from focusing on reducing import bills and improving the cost competitiveness of local goods) schemes to support private manufacturing investments, and the new Employment-Linked Incentives. But these may not be able to generate the scale of activity India needs to engage (employ, recruit, enlist, take on) its young workforce (workers, employees). The Bank has emphasised (underscore, underline, highlight, accentuate, point up, call attention to, focus attention on) the need for a rethink (afterthought, reconsideration, reexamination, review) on India’s approach to a critical growth engine — trade. India’s global trade share does not match its economy’s size, and it is yet to capitalise on the opportunity presented by China’s withdrawal from labour-intensive (relating to the process where a larger portion of total costs is due to labour as compared with the portion for costs incurred in purchase, maintenance, and depreciation of capital equipment) production or the much-vaunted (much-acclaimed, much-admired, much-praised, much-acknowledged) ‘China plus one (a business strategy adopted by (multinational) companies to build new manufacturing units outside China)’ global reset (a strategic approach to evaluate (global) situation and make changes for improvement). A concern is a decline in export-related jobs over the past decade (a period of ten years), flagged (indicate, point out, identify; draw attention to something) by the Bank, coinciding with a shift towards capital- and skill-intensive (competency-focused, expertise-driven, knowledge-intensive, proficiency-demanding, aptitude-driven, capability-intensive) exports. While trade facilitation (it refers to the simplification, standardization and harmonization of procedures and associated information flows required to move goods from seller to buyer and to make payment. In simple terms, trade facilitation should streamline customs procedures in order to reduce the time and cost to trade — essentially, cut the “red tape (excessive official rules/procedures) ” at the border) steps and the pursuit of free trade agreements (an agreement between two or more countries designed to reduce or eliminate certain barriers to trade and investment, and to facilitate stronger trade and commercial ties between participating countries) are commendable (praiseworthy, laudable, applaudable, admirable, creditable), some like the one with EFTA have limited potential, it noted. Progress has been hampered (hinder, obstruct, impede) by new barriers to goods, services and investments, and it has called for a new strategic trade plan that reduces tariffs, non-tariff barriers (it refer to any measures, other than customs tariffs, that regulate imports or exports into a country. Non-tariff barriers include embargoes, sanctions, and levies) as well as FDI curbs (constraint, restriction, limitation, control), and a rethink of the reluctance (unwillingness, disinclination, hesitation) towards multilateral/ plurilateral pacts (agreement, treaty, protocol) such as the RCEP. Policymakers must heed (pay attention to, take note of, bear in mind, consider, adhere to, be mindful of) this prescription ((authoritative) recommendation, method, formula, direction, instruction, measure) in earnest (zealously, purposefully, determinedly, resolutely, with enthusiasm, with dedication, with commitment), and urgently.
Courtesy: The Hindu
Important Word List With Meaning
1.World Bank (noun)
Hindi Meaning - विश्व बैंक
English Meaning - The World Bank is an international development organization owned by 187 countries. Its role is to reduce poverty by lending money to the governments of its poorer members to improve their economies and to improve the standard of living of their people. The World Bank was established in 1944 to help rebuild Europe and Japan after World War II. Its official name was the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).
2.prognosis (noun)
Hindi Meaning - पूर्वानुमान
English Meaning - forecast, prediction, projection, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).
3.moot (verb)
Hindi Meaning - सुझाना, प्रस्ताव रखना
English Meaning - suggest, recommend, present, propose, put forward, submit (an idea or possibility).
4.Gross domestic product (GDP) (noun)
Hindi Meaning - सकल घरेलू उत्पाद
English Meaning - a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and service.
5.International Monetary Fund (IMF) (noun)
Hindi Meaning - अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष
English Meaning - an international organization of 189 countries, headquartered in Washington, D.C., working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.
6.Asian Development Bank (ADB) (noun)
Hindi Meaning - एशियाई विकास बैंक
English Meaning - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) envisions a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty in the region. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members-49 from the region.
7.uptick (noun)
Hindi Meaning - थोड़ी वृद्धि
English Meaning - a small increase or upward trend.
8.project (verb)
Hindi Meaning - पूर्वानुमान करना, भविष्यवाणी करना
English Meaning - predict, indicate, forecast, prognose, speculate, calculate (future events or trends).
9.modest (adjective)
Hindi Meaning - मामूली, सीमित
English Meaning - small, limited, scanty, meagre, frugal, moderate.
10.due to (phrase)
Hindi Meaning - के कारण
English Meaning - because of, as a result of, thanks to, on account of, owing to.
11.prospects (noun)
Hindi Meaning - संभावनाएँ, उम्मीदें
English Meaning - chances, possibilities, expectations, outlook, future.
12.restrictive (adjective)
Hindi Meaning - प्रतिबंधात्मक, सीमित करने वाला
English Meaning - restricting, constraining, confining, prohibitive.
13.monetary policy (noun)
Hindi Meaning - मौद्रिक नीति
English Meaning - monetary policy refers to the use of monetary instruments under the control of the central bank to regulate magnitudes such as interest rates, money supply, and availability of credit with a view to achieving the ultimate objective of economic policy mentioned in the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.
14.persistent (adjective)
Hindi Meaning - लगातार, निरंतर
English Meaning - continuous, constant, unending, unrelenting, unceasing.
15.geopolitical (adjective)
Hindi Meaning - भू-राजनीतिक
English Meaning - relating to (the study of) the geographical factors (a country’s position on the earth, size, climate, and natural resources &, etc.) in world politics and inter-state relations.
16.tensions (noun)
English Meaning - strained relations, strain, unease.
17.trade up (phrasal verb)
English Meaning - to sell something so as to buy something more expensive.
18.trading up (phrase/noun)
English Meaning - increasing/intensifying the activity (of buying and selling) to a higher level.
19.forecast (noun)
English Meaning - prediction, indication, projection, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).
20.in sync (phrase)
English Meaning - in agreement.
21.tad (noun)
English Meaning - a very small amount; a little bit; to small degree extent; slightly, somewhat.
22.Fitch Ratings (noun)
English Meaning - an American credit rating agency and is one of the “Big Three credit rating agencies”, the other two being Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.
23.way (adverb)
English Meaning - much.
24.subdued (adjective)
English Meaning - restrained, controlled, toned down, muted.
25.environment (noun)
English Meaning - situation, condition, context, background, backdrop, atmosphere.
26.dissipation (noun)
English Meaning - draining, depletion, losing, loss; squandering, waste.
27.rebound (noun)
English Meaning - rally, upturn, recovery, improvement, resurgence (after decline).
28.cloud (verb)
English Meaning - mess up, spoil, ruin, vitiate.
29.supply chain (noun)
English Meaning - a dynamic network when a company purchases or uses goods or services from others. It involves people, information, processes, and resources involved in the production, handling, and distribution of materials and finished products or providing a service to the customer.
30.resurgence (noun)
English Meaning - recovery, revival, rebound, resurrection, renaissance, re-emergence.
31.inflation (noun)
English Meaning - simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value.
32.central bank (noun)
English Meaning - the banking regulator of a county’s banking system. (e.g. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the central bank of India).
33.hold (noun)
English Meaning - maintain, continue (without changing).
34.private consumption or consumption expenditure (noun)
English Meaning - the spending by households (consumers) on goods and services, excluding new housing.
35.anaemic (adjective)
English Meaning - feeble, weak, poor, inadequate.
36.offset (verb)
English Meaning - even up, counterbalance, equalize, neutralize; make amends for, compensate for.
37.moderation (noun)
English Meaning - reduction, contraction, lessening, decrease.
38.revive (verb)
English Meaning - recover, renew, re-establish, resuscitate, revitalize, regenerate, bring back.
39.bolster (verb)
English Meaning - strengthen, support, make stronger, reinforce, buttress.
40.hover (verb)
English Meaning - to remain at a level.
41.imperative (noun)
English Meaning - necessary condition, precondition, condition, essential requirement.
42.acknowledge (verb)
English Meaning - accept, recognize, realize.
43.Production Linked Incentive (PLI) (noun)
English Meaning - incentives provided to companies for enhancing their domestic manufacturing apart from focusing on reducing import bills and improving the cost competitiveness of local goods.
44.Employment Linked Incentive (ELI) (noun)
English Meaning - a proposed policy framework aimed at directly incentivizing companies based on the number of new jobs they create.
45.engage (verb)
English Meaning - employ, recruit, enlist, take on.
46.workforce (noun)
English Meaning - workers, employees.
47.emphasise (verb)
English Meaning - underscore, underline, highlight, accentuate, point up, call attention to, focus attention on.
48.rethink (noun)
English Meaning - afterthought, reconsideration, reexamination, review.
49.capitalise on (phrasal verb)
English Meaning - take advantage of, use, make use of, benefit from.
50.labour-intensive (adjective)
English Meaning - relating to the process where a larger portion of total costs is due to labour as compared with the portion for costs incurred in purchase, maintenance, and depreciation of capital equipment.
51.much-vaunted (adjective)
English Meaning - much-acclaimed, much-admired, much-praised, much-acknowledged.
52.China plus one (noun)
English Meaning - a business strategy adopted by (multinational) companies to build new manufacturing units outside China.
53.global reset (noun)
English Meaning - a strategic approach to evaluate (global) situation and make changes for improvement.
54.decade (noun)
English Meaning - a period of ten years.
55.flag (verb)
English Meaning - indicate, point out, identify; draw attention to something.
56.skill-intensive (adjective)
English Meaning - competency-focused, expertise-driven, knowledge-intensive, proficiency-demanding, aptitude-driven, capability-intensive.
57.capital-intensive (adjective)
English Meaning - (typically in business and economics) concentrating on capital resources.
58.-intensive (adjective/usually in combination)
English Meaning - (in business) concentrating on a particular thing.
59.trade facilitation (noun)
English Meaning - it refers to the simplification, standardization and harmonization of procedures and associated information flows required to move goods from seller to buyer and to make payment. In simple terms, trade facilitation should streamline customs procedures in order to reduce the time and cost to trade — essentially, cut the “red tape (excessive official rules/procedures) ” at the border.
60.pursuit (noun)
English Meaning - push towards, striving towards, aim of, objective of; activity.
61.Free Trade Agreement (FTA) (noun)
English Meaning - an agreement between two or more countries designed to reduce or eliminate certain barriers to trade and investment, and to facilitate stronger trade and commercial ties between participating countries.
62.free trade (noun)
English Meaning - a policy to eliminate barriers/limits/regulations against imports and exports.
63.commendable (adjective)
English Meaning - praiseworthy, laudable, applaudable, admirable, creditable.
64.The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) (noun)
English Meaning - it is a trade organisation and free trade area consisting of four European states- Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.
65.potential (noun)
English Meaning - possibilities, potentiality, prospects.
66.hamper (verb)
English Meaning - hinder, obstruct, impede.
67.call for (phrasal verb)
English Meaning - require, publicly ask/necessitate, demand.
68.tariff/trade barriers (noun)
English Meaning - taxes established by each country to restrict foreign trade.
69.non-tariff barriers (noun)
English Meaning - it refer to any measures, other than customs tariffs, that regulate imports or exports into a country. Non-tariff barriers include embargoes, sanctions, and levies.
70.foreign direct investment (FDI) (noun)
English Meaning - Investment from one country into another (normally by companies rather than governments) that involves establishing operations or acquiring tangible assets, including stakes in other businesses.
71.curb (noun)
English Meaning - constraint, restriction, limitation, control.
72.reluctance (noun)
English Meaning - unwillingness, disinclination, hesitation.
73.multilateral (adjective)
English Meaning - involving many different countries.
74.plurilateral (adjective)
English Meaning - (of an agreement) involving many different countries.
75.pact (noun)
English Meaning - agreement, treaty, protocol.
76.Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) (noun)
English Meaning - a proposed agreement between the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its free trade agreement (FTA) partners. The pact aims to cover trade in goods and services, intellectual property, etc.
77.heed (verb)
English Meaning - pay attention to, take note of, bear in mind, consider, adhere to, be mindful of.
78.prescription (noun)
English Meaning - (authoritative) recommendation, method, formula, direction, instruction, measure.
79.in earnest (phrase)
English Meaning - zealously, purposefully, determinedly, resolutely, with enthusiasm, with dedication, with commitment.