Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Winter is coming: On IMF’s warning

Winter is coming: On IMF’s warning

Amid (के बीच, घिरा हुआ; दौरान) India’s slowing growth impulses (प्रेरणा, आवेग, प्रोत्साहन), the International Monetary Fund (अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष) has warned ‘the worst is yet to come’

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook (A Survey by the IMF staff usually published twice a year in the months of April and October. It presents IMF staff economists’ analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term) report, has retained global growth hopes for 2022 at 3.2%, and lowered next year’s projection (प्रक्षेपण, पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी) to 2.7% from 2.9%. The year 2023 will feel like a recession (मंदी, आर्थिक गिरावट) for many people in the world, the Fund has cautioned, as ‘the worst is yet to come’ amid tighter monetary policies (मौद्रिक नीति) to curb (नियंत्रित करना, मध्यम करना) stubbornly high inflation (मुद्रा स्फ़ीति) and a spiralling energy and food crisis. While it retained India’s 2023-24 growth estimate at 6.1%, the IMF slashed this year’s forecast (भविष्यवाणी, संकेत, प्रक्षेपण) to 6.8%, from 7.4% in July. This is the second significant estimate after the World Bank’s (विश्व बैंक) 6.5% assessment that pegs (fix, set, hold, limit (a price, rate, or amount) at a particular level) India’s GDP rise below 7%, which the Reserve Bank of India and North Block mandarins (a powerful officer, public/government servant, office-bearer, civil servant) are expecting this year. The downgrade (decline, downfall, degeneration) is attributed (ascribe, connect with, associate with; hold responsible for) to ‘weaker than expected outturn’ in the second quarter (त्रिमास, तीन महीने की अवधि) and subdued (low, lowered, inactive, dull; restrained, controlled) external demand. The slowing growth in tax collections, industrial output and exports, back this prognosis (पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी). The road ahead — rendered (प्रदान करना, बनाना, कारण बनना) tortuous (complicated, complex, indirect, lengthy) by the lingering (सुस्त, विलंब करने वाला, आलसी) Russia-Ukraine conflict (war, armed conflict, battle, fighting), a slowdown in China and what the IMF has eloquently (expressively, revealingly, significantly, indicatively) termed a ‘cost of living crisis’ — is not much travelled on. The risk of monetary, fiscal (financial) or financial policy miscalibration (misassessment, incorrect assessment; false evaluation) has risen sharply amid high uncertainty (unpredictability, unreliability, riskiness/precariousness) and growing fragilities (vulnerability, riskiness; weakness, delicacy), the Fund has emphasised (underscore, highlight, stress, call/draw attention to, put stress on).

After likely losing the tag to Saudi Arabia this year, the IMF expects India to become the fastest growing (increasing) major economy in the world again next year. But private forecasters such as Nomura (a global financial services group with an integrated network spanning over 30 countries and regions. By connecting markets East & West, they service the needs of individuals, institutions, corporates and governments through our three business divisions: Retail, Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) and Investment Management) believe policy makers’ optimism about 2023-24 prospects (chances, possibilities, expectations, outlook, future) may be misplaced (misguided, misconceived, ill-advised, ill-considered, ill-judged) as the global downturns (recession, economic decline, slowdown, depression, slump)’ ripple effects may be underestimated, and growth could well slip (fall, sink, drop, go down, decrease) to 5.2%. Either way, relative prosperity (success, fortune, welfare, well being) compared to the world alone will not suffice (be enough, be sufficient, be adequate). India needs to not only grow significantly faster than its faltering (delaying, uncertain, unsteady/weak, precarious, irresolute, hesitant) pre-pandemic (before the pandemic) trajectory (track/course, route, path, direction, approach) but also deliver better quality growth that is inclusive (all-round, overall) and meets the aspirations of millions of its youth who constitute (make up, comprise, form, compose, represent) its demographic dividend (it is defined as a boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents (or) it is the accelerated development that can arise when a population has a relatively large proportion of working-age people coupled with effective human capital investment). The country has only a small window (opportunity, chance, opening) now to cash in on (use, utilize, exploit, take advantage of, turn to one’s advantage) this sweet spot. Moreover (in addition, furthermore, further), given (considering, taking into account, bearing in mind) India’s low per capita (per person, for each; relating to each person) income, the sustained surge (sudden increase or rise of something) in prices has hit (affect badly) most households’ spending capacity, and could even cramp (hinder, impede, inhibit) their ability to invest in the next generation’s education. Ministers’ assertions (declaration, statement, contention) that India had managed to rein in (to control, restrain, restrict, limit someone/something) inflation and it is not a priority concern may have been premature as August and September witnessed a resurgence (reoccurrence/recurrence, reappearance, reemergence) in price rise from July’s minor relief of 6.71% after staying above 7% in the first quarter. The Government has begun work on Budget 2023-24, but the second half of this year still needs to be navigated (handle, manage) deftly (cleverly, proficiently, skillfully).

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.International Monetary Fund (IMF) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष
English Meaning - an international organization of 189 countries, headquartered in Washington, D.C., working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.

2.amid (preposition)

Hindi Meaning - के बीच, घिरा हुआ; दौरान
English Meaning - in the middle of, surrounded by; during.

3.impulse (noun)

Hindi Meaning - प्रेरणा, आवेग, प्रोत्साहन
English Meaning - impetus, fillip, spur, motivation, encouragement.

4.projection (noun)

Hindi Meaning - प्रक्षेपण, पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी
English Meaning - forecast, prediction, indication, calculation, prognosis, speculation (of future events or trends).

5.recession (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मंदी, आर्थिक गिरावट
English Meaning - economic decline, slowdown, downturn, depression, slump.

6.monetary policy (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मौद्रिक नीति
English Meaning - monetary policy refers to the use of monetary instruments under the control of the central bank to regulate magnitudes such as interest rates, money supply, and availability of credit with a view to achieving the ultimate objective of economic policy mentioned in the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.

7.curb (verb)

Hindi Meaning - नियंत्रित करना, मध्यम करना
English Meaning - control, moderate, mitigate, reduce, lessen.

8.inflation (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मुद्रा स्फ़ीति
English Meaning - simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value.

9.forecast (noun)

Hindi Meaning - भविष्यवाणी, संकेत, प्रक्षेपण
English Meaning - prediction, indication, projection, prognosis, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).

10.World Bank (noun)

Hindi Meaning - विश्व बैंक
English Meaning - The World Bank is an international development organization owned by 187 countries. Its role is to reduce poverty by lending money to the governments of its poorer members to improve their economies and to improve the standard of living of their people. The World Bank was established in 1944 to help rebuild Europe and Japan after World War II. Its official name was the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).

11.Gross domestic product (GDP) (noun)

Hindi Meaning - सकल घरेलू उत्पाद
English Meaning - a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and services.

12.quarter (noun)

Hindi Meaning - त्रिमास, तीन महीने की अवधि
English Meaning - a period of three months (considered as one-fourth of a year).

13.prognosis (noun)

Hindi Meaning - पूर्वानुमान, भविष्यवाणी
English Meaning - forecast, prediction, projection, speculation, calculation (of future events or trends).

14.render (verb)

Hindi Meaning - प्रदान करना, बनाना, कारण बनना
English Meaning - make, cause to become.

15.lingering (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - सुस्त, विलंब करने वाला, आलसी
English Meaning - long-drawn-out, protracted, prolonged, persisting.

16.winter is coming (phrase)

English Meaning - a threatening warning/sign that something bad/unpleasant is going to happen.

17.the best/worst is yet to come (phrase)

English Meaning - the most pleasant/unpleasant or favourable/unfavourable thing has not happenned yet (and that may happen in the future).

18.World Economic Outlook (WEO) (noun)

English Meaning - A Survey by the IMF staff usually published twice a year in the months of April and October. It presents IMF staff economists’ analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term.

19.stubbornly (adverb)

English Meaning - persistently, firmly, inflexibly.

20.spiralling (adjective)

English Meaning - increasing continuously & dramatically.

21.slash (verb)

English Meaning - reduce, lower, bring down.

22.peg (verb)

English Meaning - fix, set, hold, limit (a price, rate, or amount) at a particular level.

23.South & North Block (noun)

English Meaning - South Block is a metonym of the Prime Minister’s Office. North Block is a metonym of the Ministry of Finance, India. (The Secretariat Building (consists North & South Block) or Central Secretariat is where the Cabinet Secretariat is housed, which administers the Government of India. The South Block houses the Prime Minister’s Office, Ministry of Defence, and the Ministry of External Affairs). The North Block primarily houses the Ministry of Finance and the Home Ministry). (Metonym is used as an alternative for something else with which it is closely related/associated).

24.mandarin (noun)

English Meaning - a powerful officer, public/government servant, office-bearer, civil servant.

25.downgrade (noun)

English Meaning - decline, downfall, degeneration.

26.attribute (verb)

English Meaning - ascribe, connect with, associate with; hold responsible for.

27.out-turn (noun)

English Meaning - return; result (growth achieved in a specific period, instead of what was expected).

28.subdued (adjective)

English Meaning - low, lowered, inactive, dull; restrained, controlled.

29.back (verb)

English Meaning - support, favour, promote, endorse, defend.

30.the road ahead (noun)

English Meaning - the future.

31.tortuous (adjective)

English Meaning - complicated, complex, indirect, lengthy.

32.conflict (noun)

English Meaning - war, armed conflict, battle, fighting.

33.slowdown (noun)

English Meaning - economic decline, recession, downturn, depression, slump.

34.eloquently (adverb)

English Meaning - expressively, revealingly, significantly, indicatively.

35.fiscal (adjective)

English Meaning - financial.

36.miscalibration (noun)

English Meaning - misassessment, incorrect assessment; false evaluation.

37.growing (adjective)

English Meaning - increasing.

38.uncertainty (noun)

English Meaning - unpredictability, unreliability, riskiness/precariousness.

39.fragility (noun)

English Meaning - vulnerability, riskiness; weakness, delicacy.

40.emphasise (verb)

English Meaning - underscore, highlight, stress, call/draw attention to, put stress on.

41.tag (noun)

English Meaning - label, name, identity, identification, recognition.

42.Nomura (noun)

English Meaning - a global financial services group with an integrated network spanning over 30 countries and regions. By connecting markets East & West, they service the needs of individuals, institutions, corporates and governments through our three business divisions: Retail, Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) and Investment Management.

43.optimism (noun)

English Meaning - hopefulness, hope, confidence, positive attitude, buoyancy.

44.prospects (noun)

English Meaning - chances, possibilities, expectations, outlook, future.

45.misplaced (adjective)

English Meaning - misguided, misconceived, ill-advised, ill-considered, ill-judged.

46.downturn (noun)

English Meaning - recession, economic decline, slowdown, depression, slump.

47.ripple effect/domino effect/knock-on effect (noun)

English Meaning - an event (or a process/action) that causes several other events to happen indirectly one after the other; secondary/indirect effect, consequence/implication, chain of events.

48.slip (verb)

English Meaning - fall, sink, drop, go down, decrease.

49.relative (adjective)

English Meaning - comparative, respective, comparable, correlative, parallel, corresponding.

50.prosperity (noun)

English Meaning - success, fortune, welfare, well being.

51.suffice (verb)

English Meaning - be enough, be sufficient, be adequate.

52.faltering (adjective)

English Meaning - delaying, uncertain, unsteady/weak, precarious, irresolute, hesitant.

53.pre-pandemic (noun)

English Meaning - before the pandemic.

54.pandemic (noun)

English Meaning - the worldwide spread of a new disease; The illness spreads around the world and typically affects a large number of people across a wide area.

55.trajectory (noun)

English Meaning - track/course, route, path, direction, approach.

56.inclusive (adjective)

English Meaning - all-round, overall.

57.constitute (verb)

English Meaning - make up, comprise, form, compose, represent.

58.demographic (adjective)

English Meaning - the statistical study/structure of populations, especially human beings.

59.demographic dividend (noun)

English Meaning - it is defined as a boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents (or) it is the accelerated development that can arise when a population has a relatively large proportion of working-age people coupled with effective human capital investment.

60.window (noun)

English Meaning - opportunity, chance, opening.

61.cash in on (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - use, utilize, exploit, take advantage of, turn to one’s advantage.

62.sweet spot (noun)

English Meaning - any place that is favourable for getting a certain desirable effect/result; an optimum spot.

63.moreover (adverb)

English Meaning - in addition, furthermore, further.

64.given (preposition)

English Meaning - considering, taking into account, bearing in mind.

65.per capita (adverb & adjective)

English Meaning - per person, for each; relating to each person.