Concept:
If the probability of an event occurring is P, the probability of the event not occurring in a given year is q = (1 - P).
The binomial distribution can be used to find the probability of occurrence of the event r times in n successive years.
\({{\rm{P}}_{\left( {{\rm{r}},{\rm{n}}} \right)}} = {}_{}^{\rm{n}}{{\rm{C}}_{\rm{r}}}{{\rm{P}}_{\rm{r}}}{{\rm{q}}^{{\rm{n}} - {\rm{r}}}} = \frac{{{\rm{n}}!}}{{\left( {{\rm{n}} - {\rm{r}}} \right)!{\rm{r}}!}}{{\rm{P}}^{\rm{r}}}{{\rm{q}}^{{\rm{n}} - {\rm{r}}}}\)
Where
P(r,n) = Probability of a random hydrologic event (rainfall) of given magnitude and exceedance probability P occurring r times in n successive years.
E.g.
a) The probability of an event of exceedance probability P occurring 2 times in n successive years is
\({{\rm{P}}_{\left( {2,{\rm{n}}} \right)}} = \frac{{{\rm{n}}!}}{{\left( {{\rm{n}} - 2} \right)!2!}}{{\rm{P}}^2}{{\rm{q}}^{{\rm{n}} - 2}}\)
b) The probability of the event not occurring at all in n successive years is
P(0,n) = qn = (1 - P)n
c) The probability of the event occurring at least once in n successive years
P1 = 1 – qn = 1 – (1 - P)n
Calculation:
Given: P = 1/50 = 0.02
For rainfall occurring two times in 15 successive years.
n = 15, r = 2
\({{\rm{P}}_{\left( {2,15} \right)}} = \frac{{15!}}{{13!2!}} \times {\left( {0.02} \right)^2} \times {\left( {0.98} \right)^{13}} = 15 \times \frac{{14}}{2} \times 0.0004 \times 0.769 = 0.0323 = 3.23\% \)