Hindi English Translation || Editorial || An uneven rebound: On the economy

An uneven rebound: On the economy

Inflation, monsoon pose fresh risks even as some residual (अवशिष्ट, शेष) stress lingers (विलंबित रहना) in the economy

India’s economy, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as the Gross Value Added (GVA), grew 7.8% in the first quarter (Q1) of the year. This is the highest GDP uptick in four quarters, but slightly underwhelming relative to the 8% growth estimated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The central bank’s 6.5% growth projection for 2023-24 factors in a decline in the uptick rate in each of the subsequent quarters of this year, culminating (समापन होना) at 5.7% in the final quarter. One will have to wait till October’s meeting of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to assess how this math is reworked, although the Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran believes these GDP numbers do not signal any discomfort (असुविधा, असहजता) in hitting the 6.5% mark for the full year. India remains the fastest growing major economy by a comfortable margin, with China recording a 6.3% rise in the same quarter and facing a fresh slowdown. But the months ahead could prove to be more challenging with global headwinds that have hit goods exports and manufacturing already, combining with domestic pressures from the renewed spurt in inflation and the likelihood of a weak monsoon playing truant (A student who stays away from school without leave or explanation) with crop yields and farm incomes.

Farm sector GVA maintained its growth pace to rise 3.5% in Q1, but may taper off thanks to the monsoon’s tepid progress and the fear that low reservoir levels may also hurt the rabi crop. The headline growth rates for the services sectors were robust (मजबूत, सुदृढ़). Trade, hotels and transport rose 9.2%, but in absolute terms, the employment-intensive segment remained 1.9% below pre-COVID-19 levels, indicating the recovery is still incomplete. While the government has been asserting that the private investment cycle has finally taken off, the gross fixed capital formation trends indicate it is still government capital spending that is doing the heavy lifting. Manufacturing GVA grew for the second successive quarter after six months of contraction, but only accelerated slightly from 4.5% to 4.7%, so a broader rebound (प्रतिक्षेप, पुनरावर्तित होना) in consumption demand is likely still awaited. Private consumption spending rose 6% but economists believe this is still dominated by demand from high income earners. Depending on how long the current streak of spiked (Having sharp points or protrusions) inflation, especially in food items, persists, demand from lower income segments would be dented (Marked or indented by a blow or pressure) afresh. A feeble recovery in rural demand could also come undone if farm incomes take a hit. Interventions to counter inflation, such as export curbs (प्रतिबंध, नियंत्रण रखना) on rice and onions, will hurt growth and the external trade balance, while relief measures, such as the ₹200 cut in LPG cylinder prices, that may proliferate (विकसित होना) ahead of the general election, also pose (To present or assume a particular attitude, position, or stance, often for a photograph or as a display of one's character or feelings) risks to the fiscal math and growth.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.Rebound (Verb)

Hindi Meaning - प्रतिक्षेप, पुनरावर्तित होना
English Meaning - To bounce back or recover after a setback or disappointment.

2.Linger (Verb)

Hindi Meaning - विलंबित रहना
English Meaning - To remain or stay in a place or situation for a longer period than necessary or expected, often out of reluctance to leave.

3.Residual (Noun)

Hindi Meaning - अवशिष्ट, शेष
English Meaning - Remaining or left over after a process or event.

4.Culminating (Verb)

Hindi Meaning - समापन होना
English Meaning - Reaching the highest point or final stage of a process or event.

5.Discomfort (Verb)

Hindi Meaning - असुविधा, असहजता
English Meaning - A state of unease, physical or mental discomfort, or a lack of comfort.

6.Robust (Adjective)

Hindi Meaning - मजबूत, सुदृढ़
English Meaning - Strong, healthy, vigorous, and able to withstand or overcome challenges.

7.Curb (Verb)

Hindi Meaning - प्रतिबंध, नियंत्रण रखना
English Meaning - To restrain or control something, usually to limit or prevent it.

8.Proliferate (Verb)

Hindi Meaning - विकसित होना
English Meaning - To increase rapidly in number or spread.

9.Pose (Verb)

English Meaning - To present or assume a particular attitude, position, or stance, often for a photograph or as a display of one's character or feelings.

10.Truant (Adjective)

English Meaning - A student who stays away from school without leave or explanation.

11.Spiked (Adjective)

English Meaning - Having sharp points or protrusions.

12.Dented (Adjective)

English Meaning - Marked or indented by a blow or pressure.