Hindi English Translation || Editorial || ​Too good to last: On November’s industrial data, the Indian economy

​Too good to last: On November’s industrial data, the Indian economy

The headwinds facing the economy are not going away soon

India’s relatively strong industrial performance in November 2025, especially driven by the manufacturing sector as it was, was more likely a flash in the pan than the start of a consistent (सुसंगत, लगातार) trend. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 6.7% in November, the fastest growth rate in 25 months. Within this, the manufacturing sector grew 8%, which also was the fastest in 25 months. On the face of it, this would look remarkable and heartening, especially since October 2025 had seen growth slow to a 14-month low. However, this surge (उछाल, तेज़ वृद्धि) in growth was more likely due to seasonal and one-off factors. According to economists, the strongest push for growth came from sellers re-stocking their supplies following the festive season. The second factor is that the government timed the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate reductions to coincide with the festive season. This temporary bump (टक्कर, उभार, धक्का) in demand would have further eroded stock levels, which then need to be replenished (फिर से भरना). In fact, the consumer durables and non-durables sectors saw growth in November rebounding (फिर से उभरना, संभलना) to 10.3% and 7.3%, a 12-month and 25-month high, respectively. The third factor that seems to have worked in November is the bounce back of the mining sector following two months of contractions (संकुचन) due to an unseasonably (In a way that is not normal or appropriate for the particular time of year) long monsoon. The mining sector saw growth come in at a reasonably strong 5.4% in November 2025. All of these are legitimate (वैध, जायज़, तर्कसंगत) reasons for growth to pick up, but are not sustainable ones. The electricity and mining sectors will be bound by the vagaries (अप्रत्याशित परिवर्तन) of the weather. Overall consumer demand has been sluggish (सुस्त) and industry players are talking of the GST-related boost already ebbing (घटते जाना, कम होना). And the festive season will not come back around until October-November 2026.

In fact, the IIP grew just 3.3% in the longer April-November period, the lowest for these eight months in any of the post-COVID-19 pandemic years. The consumer non-durables sector contracted 1% during this period, showing that the boost in November is not indicative. That the strong growth in November is more an anomaly than a sign of things to come should not come as a surprise. The Reserve Bank of India, earlier this month, predicted that growth in Q3 would slow to 7% from an average of 8% in the first two quarters. The fourth quarter is predicted to slow even further, to 6.5%. All of the previous headwinds (A wind blowing directly against the course of an aircraft or vehicle; (Metaphorically) a force that delays or obstructs progress) still exist. The 50% tariffs by the U.S. are still in place, private investment remains sluggish, foreign capital is pulling out of the country, the weakening rupee is making imports more expensive for an import-dependent economy, real wages are not growing fast enough, and consumer demand remains tepid. Ironically, November’s positive industrial data bring into focus the headwinds the economy is really facing.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.Consistent (Adjective)

Hindi Meaning – सुसंगत, लगातार
English Meaning – Acting or done in the same way over time, especially so as to be fair or accurate.

2.Surge (Noun)

Hindi Meaning – उछाल, तेज़ वृद्धि
English Meaning – A sudden powerful forward or upward movement, especially by a crowd or a natural force such as the tide.

3.Bump (Noun)

Hindi Meaning – टक्कर, उभार, धक्का
English Meaning – A light blow or a small increase; a slight obstacle on a surface.

4.Ebb (Verb)

Hindi Meaning – घटते जाना, कम होना
English Meaning – (Of tidewater) move away from the coast; (Of an emotion or quality) gradually decrease.

5.Replenish (Verb)

Hindi Meaning – फिर से भरना
English Meaning – To fill something up again; restore to a former level or condition.

6.Rebound (Verb)

Hindi Meaning – फिर से उभरना, संभलना
English Meaning – To bounce back after hitting a hard surface; to recover in value or strength.

7.Contraction (Noun)

Hindi Meaning – संकुचन
English Meaning – The process of becoming smaller; (Economics) a phase of the business cycle where the economy declines.

8.Legitimate (Adjective)

Hindi Meaning – वैध, जायज़, तर्कसंगत
English Meaning – Conforming to the law or to rules; able to be defended with logic or justification.

9.Sluggish (Adjective)

Hindi Meaning – सुस्त
English Meaning – Slow-moving or inactive; lacking energy or alertness.

10.Vagary (Noun)

Hindi Meaning – अप्रत्याशित परिवर्तन
English Meaning – An unexpected and inexplicable change in a situation or in someone's behavior.

11.Headwind (Noun)

English Meaning – A wind blowing directly against the course of an aircraft or vehicle; (Metaphorically) a force that delays or obstructs progress.

12.Unseasonably (Adverb)

English Meaning – In a way that is not normal or appropriate for the particular time of year.