Read the passage carefully and answer the questions that follow.
In the midst of today’s cost of living crisis, many people who are critical of the idea of economic growth see an opportunity... Since the same system is, in their view, also responsible for causing climate change, moving away from it and curbing the economic growth on which it turns will help kill two birds with one stone.
Arguments like these recall and are directly influenced by a famous scientific report from 50 years ago called Limits to Growth [which] warned of an “overshoot and collapse” of the global economy within 100 years. The researchers forecast that this decline would be caused by exponential growth in populations, industrialisation, pollution, food production and resource depletion. The answer, they said, was to move to a state of economic and ecological stability that would be sustainable far into the future.
When the oil crisis of October 1973 to March 1974 saw oil prices quadrupling, it was seen as vindicating the report’s prediction of a dramatic surge in the price of oil... Yet contrary to the predictions in the Limits report, the oil shock was not caused by resource scarcity but by geopolitics. The Saudis and oil-supplier cartel OPEC had imposed an oil embargo on the west to protest the US arming Israel in its wars against Syria and Egypt...
Not only did the writers of the Limits report predict a spike in oil prices for the wrong reasons, they also failed to consider how the market would respond. Higher prices reduced demand and incentivized energy efficient investment and oil exploration, with major new reserves being identified. Growth has not been constrained by a lack of resources, partly because technological advances enable us to generate more from less, and partly because of market forces. When a product or commodity becomes more expensive, people either use less of it or switch to an alternative...
Both in the 1970s and today, one of the main issues is a fundamental misunderstanding of what economic growth is and what drives it. It is seen as being quantity driven, in the sense that degrowthers think there is an insatiable demand for more of the same, which will eventually have “devastating consequences for the living world”. But economic growth is more about quality than quantity. It’s not just about producing more cars, for example, but about making them more fuel efficient or electric. This in turn creates demand for different resources, such as lithium for batteries.
Or to give another example of how economists view growth, one important study looked at how the price of a unit of light fell over time. This was because as technology shifted from candles to modern light bulbs, the cost of production in terms of hours worked fell dramatically.
Yet in another respect, the degrowthers are entirely right... Pollution has indeed become a bigger issue than resource constraints... After the Limits thesis, economists began incorporating the idea of finite resources more explicitly into models of economic growth. This formed the basis of the economic approach to sustainable development, which says that you achieve intergenerational equity by reinvesting the proceeds from finite resources into other assets like buildings, machines or tools.
For example, if USD1 of oil is extracted from the ground, USD1 should be reinvested elsewhere. Though still far from universally adopted, some oil- producing nations such as Norway do this.