Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Cautious optimism: On India and growth

Cautious optimism: On India and growth

India’s challenge is to maintain the growth momentum (गति, रफ़्तार)

India’s September-quarter GDP data for the current financial year beat all estimates, coming in at 8.2%, higher than 7.8% in Q1 FY26 and well above the year-ago period. This offers fleeting reassurance to policymakers, days after October’s trade data revealed a historic deficit of $41.68 billion, driven partly by a trebling (तिगुना करना) of bullion imports — a signal of economic uncertainty. Growth has been led by manufacturing (9.1%) and services (9.2%), supported by a recovery in private consumption. Private Final Consumption Expenditure grew 7.9% in Q2 FY26, compared with 6.4% in Q2 FY25, while government spending also provided a modest (मामूली) boost. Together, these suggest a broad-based uptick in domestic activity despite global headwinds (सम्मुख पवन). Yet, the full effects of the external shock may surface in the quarters ahead. The U.S.’s ‘two-stage’ India tariffs, in August, landed mid-quarter. Some front-loading of export orders ahead of these tariffs may also have inflated Q2 output. A second statistical effect is at play. Retail inflation fell to 0.25% in October, the lowest in the current CPI series, contributing to a GDP deflator reportedly below 1%. A deflator this low mechanically inflates real GDP relative to nominal; the narrow gap between nominal GDP (8.7%) and real GDP (8.2%) underscores this. Should inflation rise or input costs firm up — if oil prices climb as India diversifies (विविधता लाना) away from Russian crude — headline GDP growth may moderate. The RBI’s upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting adds uncertainty, as any policy rate will shape demand-side pressures.

The Gross Value Added breakdown shows construction growing 7.2%, and the services sub-segment of financial, real estate and professional services rising 10.2% — indicating that capital-intensive, infrastructure-linked sectors have been central to this momentum. Monthly industrial indicators reinforce this pattern: the IIP rose 4% in September, with core capital-intensive categories such as steel (14.1%) and cement (5.3%) recording strong gains. This aligns with the impact of the RBI’s three repo-rate cuts this year, which lowered the policy rate to 5.5% in June and may have supported investment activity. Crucially, the composition of growth remains skewed (To suddenly change direction or position; to make them biased or distorted). The quarter’s expansion has been driven by capital-intensive and higher-skill sectors — banking and technology — while high-employment, labour-absorbing sectors continue to lag. IIP data for the past six months also point to weak rural consumption. There is, therefore, reason for cautious (सतर्क, सावधान) optimism (आशावाद). But the September-quarter growth spurt (उछाल, तेज़ी) appears concentrated (ध्यान केंद्रित करना) in better-paying formal sectors, even as low-income, export-linked, labour-intensive segments struggle. With September and October trade data already flashing warning signs, it might be too early to conclude that this pace of growth could be sustained (बनाए रखना).

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.Cautious (Adjective)

Hindi Meaning – सतर्क, सावधान
English Meaning – Careful to avoid potential problems or dangers.

2.Treble (Verb)

Hindi Meaning – तिगुना करना
English Meaning – To increase three-fold; consisting of three parts; the highest part in musical harmony.

3.Modest (Adjective)

Hindi Meaning – मामूली
English Meaning – Unassuming in the estimation of one's abilities or achievements; relatively moderate, limited, or small in amount, size, or extent.

4.Headwind (Noun)

Hindi Meaning – सम्मुख पवन
English Meaning – A wind blowing directly towards the front of an aircraft or vessel; a force or circumstance that opposes progress.

5.Diversify (Verb)

Hindi Meaning – विविधता लाना
English Meaning – To increase the variety of products, assets, or operations; to vary one's investments or activities.

6.Concentrate (Verb)

Hindi Meaning – ध्यान केंद्रित करना
English Meaning – To focus all one's attention or mental effort on a particular object or activity; to gather together in one place.

7.Sustain (Verb)

Hindi Meaning – बनाए रखना
English Meaning – To strengthen or support physically or mentally; to keep going; to endure.

8.Optimism (Noun)

Hindi Meaning – आशावाद
English Meaning – Hopefulness and confidence about the future or the successful outcome of something.

9.Spurt (Noun)

Hindi Meaning – उछाल, तेज़ी
English Meaning – A sudden gush of liquid; a sudden brief burst of activity, effort, or growth.

10.Momentum (Noun)

Hindi Meaning – गति, रफ़्तार
English Meaning – The quantity of motion of a moving body; the impetus gained by a moving object; the driving force or progress of a course of events.

11.Intensive (Adjective)

English Meaning – Concentrated on a single area or subject or into a short time; involving or requiring a great deal of effort or concentration.

12.Skew (Verb)

English Meaning – To suddenly change direction or position; to make them biased or distorted.