Hindi English Translation || Editorial || Downhill driving: On India’s overall trend of exports

Downhill driving: On India’s overall trend of exports

Shrinking trade volumes pose a risk for this year’s growth hopes

After hitting a record $775 billion in 2022-23, India’s exports are off to a rocky start this year. Outbound (travelling/going out of your home country) shipments of goods, that had crossed $450 billion last year, have contracted (decline, decrease, diminish, reduce) 15.1% through the April to June 2023 quarter (तिमाही). June’s provisional (अस्थायी, अल्पकालिक) export tally, just shy of (less than; short of) $33 billion, was the lowest figure in eight months and reflected (दर्शाना, प्रतिबिम्ब डालना) a 22% drop year-on-year (साल-दर-साल), a scale of contraction (संकुचन, गिरावट) last seen amid (के बीच, मध्य में) the initial months of the COVID-19 lockdowns (an emergency protocol implemented by the authorities that prevents people from leaving from a place; An extended state of confinement/encirclement/isolation of a person by the authority). There has been a decline in the import bill as well over the first quarter, albeit (यद्यपि, हालाँकि) at a slower pace (rate, speed) than exports. This 12.7% dip is largely driven (prompt, urge, force, spur, impel) by the prevalence (प्रचलन) of lower commodity prices this year compared to the same quarter last year, when the import bill had shot up 44.5% after the Russia-Ukraine conflict (संघर्ष) erupted (start suddenly, flare up, break out, boil over, blow up (of something unwelcome)). Excluding gold and oil imports, the value of shipments coming into the country is down 10.5% in the first quarter. Sequentially (क्रमिक रूप से), the decline in non-oil, non-gold imports has accelerated (increase, rise, escalate) from 2% in May to 16.7% in June, indicating that domestic demand triggers (something that causes a particular action, process, or situation) are also ebbing (diminish, decrease, fade away, disappear; it also means recede, retreat, flow back, go out). While this implies the goods trade deficit (व्यापार घाटा) may not widen as it had last year, it does not augur well for domestic growth impulses (urge, need, drive, desire; stimulus, fillip, impetus) that form India’s key armour (कवच, सुरक्षा) against the gathering (increasing) global slowdown (मंदी, आर्थिक गिरावट).

Services exports are still growing but at a far more (much more) sombre (निराशाजनक) pace. That IT majors, who drive most of these intangible (अमूर्त, अस्पष्ट) exports, have been tentative and decidedly downcast (disheartened, discouraged, low-spirited, hopeless; sad, dismal) about their earnings guidance (it is a set of information offered by the management of a public limited company. It contains data on the company’s expected future results, revenue estimates, expense forecasts, earnings, margins, etc. Through earnings guidance, the company’s management communicates its future direction by establishing short-and long-term goals) for this year, indicates the tide (movement; trend, tendency, course of events) may get worse. Frail (weak, infirm, feeble, delicate, slight, shaky) global demand may not just impact trade flows but also hurt foreign direct investments (Investment from one country into another (normally by companies rather than governments) that involves establishing operations or acquiring tangible assets, including stakes in other businesses) even as tightening monetary policies (monetary policy refers to the use of monetary instruments under the control of the central bank to regulate magnitudes such as interest rates, money supply, and availability of credit with a view to achieving the ultimate objective of economic policy mentioned in the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934) could exacerbate (intensify, heighten, increase; aggravate, worsen, make worse) financial market volatility (unpredictability, instability, unreliability). As the Finance Ministry noted recently, if these trends deepen, the 6.5% growth hopes for the year could wobble (be uncertain, be indecisive, be undecided, hesitate, vacillate). But retail sales in the U.K. have improved in June, although fractionally. The U.S. Treasury (The Treasury Department is the executive agency responsible for promoting economic prosperity and ensuring the financial security of the United States. Treasury’s mission highlights its role as the steward of U.S. economic and financial systems, and as an influential participant in the world economy) Secretary Janet Yellen has exuded (send out, issue, give out, release (an emotion or quality)) confidence that a recession in the world’s largest economy may be averted (prevent, stop, avoid) after all. Inflation (simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value) numbers have eased (decrease, reduce, lower, moderate) in Europe and the U.S., triggering (cause, give rise to, lead to, bring about, generate) hopes of interest rate pauses (temporary stoppage, break, interval) instead of further tightening to throttle (suppress, control/restrict, stifle) demand and activity. While driving on the hills, one has to prioritise the movement of vehicles climbing up, even if that means reversing (alter, undo, change) a descending (falling, sinking, sliding, slipping, going down) automobile up to a point (partly; to some extent/degree; to certain level/extent; somewhat) of safe passage. Within the overall downhill trend of exports, the few bright spots such as rising shipments of electronic goods must flourish while trade curbs or obstacles affecting other products must be reviewed. Indian policymakers should redouble (make something more intense/ stronger; to increase, strengthen, intensify something considerably) efforts to improve competitiveness vis-à-vis (concerning, with regard to, in relation to, as/in comparison with, in connection with (Vis-à-vis from Latin via. French, means literally “face-to-face)) rivals such as Vietnam, and keep a closer watch on divergent (different, differing, varying, contradictory) trends in different markets to help exporters capture incremental (gradual, step-by-step, phased), even if fractional (comparatively small/tiny), global demand.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Important Word List With Meaning

1.quarter (noun)

Hindi Meaning - तिमाही
English Meaning - a period of three months (considered as one-fourth of a year).

2.provisional (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - अस्थायी, अल्पकालिक
English Meaning - temporary, short-term, interim, transitional; tentative.

3.reflect (verb)

Hindi Meaning - दर्शाना, प्रतिबिम्ब डालना
English Meaning - indicate, show, display, demonstrate, reveal, exhibit.

4.year-on-year (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - साल-दर-साल
English Meaning - year over year (for comparison).

5.contraction (noun)

Hindi Meaning - संकुचन, गिरावट
English Meaning - decline, decrease, reduction.

6.amid (preposition)

Hindi Meaning - के बीच, मध्य में
English Meaning - in the middle of, surrounded by; during.

7.albeit (conjunction)

Hindi Meaning - यद्यपि, हालाँकि
English Meaning - though, even though, however.

8.prevalence (noun)

Hindi Meaning - प्रचलन
English Meaning - commonness, generality, regularity, widespread presence, ubiquitousness.

9.conflict (noun)

Hindi Meaning - संघर्ष
English Meaning - war, warfare, armed conflict, military action, armed clash.

10.sequentially (adverb)

Hindi Meaning - क्रमिक रूप से
English Meaning - in succession, successively, continuously.

11.trade deficit (noun)

Hindi Meaning - व्यापार घाटा
English Meaning - a trade deficit (a deficit in the balance of trade) occurs when the value of a country’s imports exceeds that of its exports. It is also called a trade gap.

12.armour (noun)

Hindi Meaning - कवच, सुरक्षा
English Meaning - protection; protective layer/covering.

13.slowdown (noun)

Hindi Meaning - मंदी, आर्थिक गिरावट
English Meaning - economic decline, recession, slump/depression.

14.sombre (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - निराशाजनक
English Meaning - dull, restrained, subdued, sober; murky, gloomy, cheerless, joyless, overcast.

15.intangible (adjective)

Hindi Meaning - अमूर्त, अस्पष्ट
English Meaning - non-physical, invisible, immaterial.

16.downhill (adjective)

English Meaning - falling, sinking, going down (into a worsening state/condition).

17.shrinking (adjective)

English Meaning - lessening, reducing, decreasing, diminishing.

18.pose (verb)

English Meaning - constitute, present, create, cause (a problem or danger or risk).

19.hit (verb)

English Meaning - reach, attain (a level/stage).

20.(get) off to a good/rocky start (phrase)

English Meaning - to be good/rocky at the beginning.

21.rocky (adjective)

English Meaning - unsteady, unstable/uncertain, problematic.

22.outbound (adjective)

English Meaning - travelling/going out of your home country.

23.contract (verb)

English Meaning - decline, decrease, diminish, reduce.

24.shy of (adjective)

English Meaning - less than; short of.

25.drop (verb)

English Meaning - fall, sink, slip, slump, dip, go down, decrease, decline.

26.lockdown (noun)

English Meaning - an emergency protocol implemented by the authorities that prevents people from leaving from a place; An extended state of confinement/encirclement/isolation of a person by the authority.

27.pace (noun)

English Meaning - rate, speed.

28.drive (verb)

English Meaning - prompt, urge, force, spur, impel.

29.shoot up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - increase or rise rapidly; soar, surge, skyrocket.

30.erupt (verb)

English Meaning - start suddenly, flare up, break out, boil over, blow up (of something unwelcome).

31.accelerate (verb)

English Meaning - increase, rise, escalate.

32.trigger (noun)

English Meaning - something that causes a particular action, process, or situation.

33.ebb (verb)

English Meaning - diminish, decrease, fade away, disappear; it also means recede, retreat, flow back, go out.

34.imply (verb)

English Meaning - indicate, point to, signify.

35.widen (verb)

English Meaning - increase, enlarge, expand.

36.augur well/ill (verb)

English Meaning - bode, indicate, portend, signal (a good/bad outcome).

37.impulse (noun)

English Meaning - urge, need, drive, desire; stimulus, fillip, impetus.

38.gathering (adjective)

English Meaning - increasing.

39.far more (phrase)

English Meaning - much more.

40.decidedly (adverb)

English Meaning - noticeably, distinctly, remarkably, clearly.

41.downcast (adjective)

English Meaning - disheartened, discouraged, low-spirited, hopeless; sad, dismal.

42.earnings guidance (noun)

English Meaning - it is a set of information offered by the management of a public limited company. It contains data on the company’s expected future results, revenue estimates, expense forecasts, earnings, margins, etc. Through earnings guidance, the company’s management communicates its future direction by establishing short-and long-term goals.

43.tide (noun)

English Meaning - movement; trend, tendency, course of events.

44.frail (adjective)

English Meaning - weak, infirm, feeble, delicate, slight, shaky.

45.foreign direct investment (FDI) (noun)

English Meaning - Investment from one country into another (normally by companies rather than governments) that involves establishing operations or acquiring tangible assets, including stakes in other businesses.

46.tighten (verb)

English Meaning - make stricter, make more rigorous, make more stringent, stiffen, toughen.

47.monetary policy (noun)

English Meaning - monetary policy refers to the use of monetary instruments under the control of the central bank to regulate magnitudes such as interest rates, money supply, and availability of credit with a view to achieving the ultimate objective of economic policy mentioned in the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.

48.fiscal policy (noun)

English Meaning - in simple terms, it is an estimate of taxation and government spending that impacts the economy.

49.exacerbate (verb)

English Meaning - intensify, heighten, increase; aggravate, worsen, make worse.

50.volatility (noun)

English Meaning - unpredictability, instability, unreliability.

51.deepen (verb)

English Meaning - grow, increase, intensify.

52.wobble (verb)

English Meaning - be uncertain, be indecisive, be undecided, hesitate, vacillate.

53.fractionally (adverb)

English Meaning - to a very small level/degree; slightly.

54.The U.S. Treasury (noun)

English Meaning - The Treasury Department is the executive agency responsible for promoting economic prosperity and ensuring the financial security of the United States. Treasury’s mission highlights its role as the steward of U.S. economic and financial systems, and as an influential participant in the world economy.

55.treasury (noun)

English Meaning - funds, resources, finances.

56.exude (verb)

English Meaning - send out, issue, give out, release (an emotion or quality).

57.avert (verb)

English Meaning - prevent, stop, avoid.

58.after all (phrase)

English Meaning - most importantly, ultimately, essentially, beyond everything.

59.inflation (noun)

English Meaning - simply meaning “cost of living”; increase of price level of goods & services and vice versa decrease of currency value.

60.ease (verb)

English Meaning - decrease, reduce, lower, moderate.

61.trigger (verb)

English Meaning - cause, give rise to, lead to, bring about, generate.

62.pause (noun)

English Meaning - temporary stoppage, break, interval.

63.throttle (verb)

English Meaning - suppress, control/restrict, stifle.

64.climb up (phrasal verb)

English Meaning - rise, ascend, increase gradually.

65.reverse (verb)

English Meaning - alter, undo, change.

66.descending (adjective)

English Meaning - falling, sinking, sliding, slipping, going down.

67.up to a point (phrase)

English Meaning - partly; to some extent/degree; to certain level/extent; somewhat.

68.flourish (verb)

English Meaning - prosper, thrive, grow, develop, burgeon, boom.

69.curb (noun)

English Meaning - control, restriction, limitation.

70.redouble (verb)

English Meaning - make something more intense/ stronger; to increase, strengthen, intensify something considerably.

71.vis-à-vis (preposition)

English Meaning - concerning, with regard to, in relation to, as/in comparison with, in connection with (Vis-à-vis from Latin via. French, means literally “face-to-face).

72.keep a check/watch on (phrase)

English Meaning - watch, observe, monitor, examine, oversee, check (something)

73.divergent (adjective)

English Meaning - different, differing, varying, contradictory.

74.incremental (adjective)

English Meaning - gradual, step-by-step, phased.

75.fractional (adjective)

English Meaning - comparatively small/tiny.